How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests

Forign Policy- March 14th 2023

In brokering a deal to resurrect diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Chinese President Xi Jinping has achieved a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. This is new: China usually refrains from playing a mediating role at all, let alone in the Middle East. And on the surface, it’s significant: Beijing and Moscow—as well as critics of the Biden administration in Washington—have characterized the agreement as a setback for U.S. influence and status in the Middle East and around the world.

Dig a little deeper, however, and the sky is not falling for Washington. On the contrary, while the deal may have temporarily damaged some of the United States’ interests in the region, the upside could significantly outweigh the downside, in both the short and the long terms.

On the negative side of the ledger, U.S. interests and values are not served by deeper cooperation between three autocracies—China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia (and a fourth, Russia, fully supportive in the background). Each suppresses human rights and any campaigns for democracy at home and detests the advance of democrats and democratic ideas abroad, including during the Arab Spring more than a decade ago and in Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty today.

In addition, by brokering the agreement, Xi and his diplomats have scored a boost for China’s image as a promoter of peace and stability. At a time when both Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden have framed U.S.-Chinese relations as competitive and confrontational, a win for Beijing in the Middle East is seen by many as a loss for Washington. Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough appears to confirm Xi’s hypothesis about China as a rising power and the United States as a declining one.

Moreover, in securing this deal, China bolstered its role as the leader of global authoritarianism—a signal to the rest of the world that liberal democracy is fading, while illiberal dictatorship appears to be the future.

The accord also threw a lifeline to the flailing dictatorship in Tehran, a desperate regime that is economically beleaguered, politically cornered at home, and isolated internationally. China had initially threatened its long-standing ties to Iran by nurturing closer relations with Saudi Arabia. Beijing’s rapprochement there amplified Saudi and Arab grievances against Iran, which angered and unnerved Tehran’s theocrats. However, Chinese diplomats then cleverly pivoted back to Iran, reassuring Iran’s leadership and making it willing to give concessions to Saudi Arabia’s leaders in Riyadh.

For now, Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough strengthens Iran’s autocrats, which clearly hurts U.S. national interests. By bolstering the regime in Tehran, the accord weakens Iran’s democratic movement and allows a more stable Iran to assist Russia in its war in Ukraine. When autocrats are cooperating, democrats lose out—in Iran, Ukraine, and elsewhere.