Iran Hoped to Profit From Israel-Hamas War, but Big Gains Still Elude It

Iran Hoped to Profit From Israel-Hamas War, but Big Gains Still Elude It

Wall Street Journal-Dec15th2023

No country stood to gain more from Hamas’s October attack on Israel and international anger at Israel’s response than Iran. But more than two months later, Tehran has yet to reap tangible strategic gains from the conflict.

Iran, which calls for Israel’s destruction, sees upside for itself in setbacks for the Jewish state. Israel on Oct. 7 suffered its worst intelligence and military failure in decades when Iran-backed Hamas militants smashed into Israel from the Gaza Strip, killing more than 1,200 people and taking more than 200 hostages, according to Israel. Israel now faces international condemnation for the scale of its military response, which has killed more than 18,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza authorities.

But Iran also faces costs from the conflict, even though it isn’t directly involved, and has been limited in its ability to capitalize on Israel’s troubles.

Iran’s diplomacy with the West, aimed at easing crushing U.S. sanctions imposed over Tehran’s nuclear program, has halted due to its support for Hamas. Billions of dollars that the U.S. had pledged to Iran in a prisoner-release deal sit effectively frozen.

Iran is urging Arab countries that had established diplomatic ties with Israel to renounce them, but none has.

Tehran’s militarily strong militia ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has meanwhile refrained from staging an all-out attack on Israel that many had feared, largely due to warnings that retaliation from Israel and the U.S. could trigger a wider regional war and weaken Iran’s own security.

The Gaza war has also rekindled America’s mission of defending its interests in the Middle East by deploying more troops and military assets. Iran has long called for U.S. forces and influence to be expelled from the region.

Hamas did succeed in shattering Israel’s aura of invincibility, and Israel’s military response has turned regional public opinion against it and the U.S., which are Tehran’s two biggest foes. But Israel is now for the first time intent on destroying Hamas, and doing so would deprive Iran of an important member of its anti-Western alliance.

In place of Hamas, the U.S. has proposed that its rival, the Palestinian Authority, which now runs parts of the West Bank, assume eventual responsibility for Gaza. If that happens and the situation in the Strip is stabilized, Iran may emerge with eroded influence on Israel’s border.