Iran attacks Israel, risking a full-blown regional war

The Economist-April13th2024

For months there has been speculation about the war in Gaza escalating into a regional conflagration. Now Israelis are enduring a terrifying night as they wonder if the moment of truth has come. Late on April 13th Iran launched scores of attack drones at Israel, and then missiles too. The barrage is part of its retaliation for an Israeli air strike that killed seven people including a top Iranian general, at the country’s embassy compound in Damascus on April 1st. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that “the malicious Zionist regime will be punished”.

Earlier in the day Iranian forces boarded a ship in the Strait of Hormuz that they said had links with Israel. Missile strikes and the drone wave are, however, a far bigger escalation. After decades of hostility and talk of war it is the first time that Iran has attacked Israel directly from its own territory. While Israel can almost certainly deal with the immediate threat the huge question is how it might retaliate, and the odds of that dragging the region and America into all-out war.

At the time of writing, missiles were being intercepted over Israeli territory. According to Israeli sources, over 100 drones had also been launched. They are probably Shaheds, a cheap model that can carry around 50 kg of explosives. With a maximum speed of less than 200 kilometres an hour, they take hours to travel from Iran to Israel. Some appear to have been intercepted, others are still in the air. Iran may also have asked its proxies, such as Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, to fire their missiles in order to magnify the scale of the attack. In signs of mounting panic and fear across the region, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, closed their airspace. Kuwait Airways diverted flights.

Israel’s first priority is to intercept as many of the drones and missiles as possible. It has had days to prepare. The country has a multi-layered missile-defence system and has deployed its entire air force to intercept the attack, with dozens of aircraft now in the air. Neighbouring Jordan vowed to shoot down any drones that cross its borders and seems to have done so already. America stands ready to assist, with Israel stating that it was co-operating with us forces in order to intercept any attack. There were reports that British aircraft were active, too. In the worst case Iran and its proxies may seek to overwhelm Israel’s air defences – “they want to keep the Israelis guessing,” says an American military source. Nonetheless the odds of their succeeding in this goal are low.

As a result the preliminary assessment is that damage will be limited. Hospitals have already been at a high level of alert since the Hamas attack on October 7th, and most schools are on break because of the forthcoming Passover holiday. Those still open have been ordered to close, but public buildings were not told to shut. Israeli communities in the Golan Heights have, however, been ordered to take shelter. Sirens and explosions could be heard in Jerusalem.