U.S. and Israel assessing new intelligence about Iran nuclear models

AXIOS-June 18th2024

By: Barak Ravid

U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are looking into new information about computer modeling by Iranian scientists that could be used for research and development of nuclear weapons, two U.S. officials plus one current and one former Israeli official told Axios.

Why it matters: The purpose of the modeling is unclear. Some U.S. and Israeli officials said the intelligence is a worrying signal about Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, but other officials on both sides said it as a “blip” that doesn’t represent a shift in Iran’s policy and strategy towards weaponization. Iran has repeatedly denied wanting nuclear weapons.

Senior U.S. and Israeli officials will meet at the White House on Thursday for the U.S.-Israel strategic consultative group (SCG) to discuss the state of the Iranian nuclear program and other issues.
It will be the first high-level and in-depth discussion between the U.S and Israel about the Iranian nuclear program since March 2023.

Behind the scenes: One U.S. and one Israeli official said the new intelligence raised “suspicion” and “concern” about Iran’s nuclear research and development activities.

One Israeli official said that after the intelligence failure around the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the Israeli intelligence community is considering even more seriously any small piece of information about potential Iranian steps toward nuclear weapons.
The U.S. intelligence community made an assessment in 2007 that Iran hasn’t had an active military nuclear program since 2003. That assessment hasn’t changed, U.S. officials told Axios.
One U.S. and one Israeli official said both countries’ intelligence agencies do not have any indication that Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei ordered the military nuclear program to be resumed.

Another U.S. official said there was “no change to our assessment that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.”

Aides to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declined to comment.

Flashback: Last March, Israeli newspaper “Yediot Ahronot” reported Iran was working to obtain some components needed to produce a nuclear warhead, such as accurate detonators.

“If Iran is now taking preliminary steps that will help build a nuclear warhead, that contradicts the longtime U.S. intelligence consensus that they ended weaponization work in 2003,” Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Axios.
Documents found in the Iranian nuclear archive, stolen by the Israeli Mossad in 2018, showed Iranian nuclear scientists were modeling nuclear detonation before 2003.
As part of the 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. and other world powers, Iran committed to not engaging in activities that are part of the design and development of a nuclear weapons, including using computer models to simulate nuclear explosive devices.

In early May, former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi made an unusual statement about the possibility of Iran producing nuclear weapons. “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine,” he was quoted by Iran’s Student News Network.

An IAEA report from late May said Iran has roughly 142 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium — an increase of more than 20 kilograms since the previous report in February.
Iran would need only several weeks to enrich this amount of uranium to 90% — the level needed for a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. and Israeli intelligence agency assessments. Iran would need roughly 42 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb.

State of play: The new intelligence will be one of the issues discussed Thursday at the U.S.-Israel strategic forum on Iran.

A U.S. official said there are no concrete conclusions about this new intelligence, but it raises questions that need to be discussed by the U.S. and Israel.
The U.S. side will be led by White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and the Israeli side will be led by Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi.
The meeting is a result of Sullivan’s last trip to Israel a few weeks ago. During his meetings in Jerusalem, Netanyahu and his aides asked to conduct an in-depth discussion on the state of the Iranian nuclear program.
“Both the U.S. and Israel think it is a good time to talk about this, discuss how we interpret Iran’s actions and coordinate on what to do,” a U.S. official said.

The big picture: In recent months, the U.S. and Iran have been engaged in indirect talks mediated by Oman in order to try to reach unofficial understandings about a temporary constraining of the Iranian nuclear program.

These efforts were the reason the U.S. tried to convince France, the U.K. and Germany not to move forward with a censure resolution against Iran via the IAEA two weeks ago for its non-cooperation with inspectors, U.S. officials said.
The U.S. was concerned such a move would derail indirect negotiations with Iran and push the Iranians to escalate their nuclear program, the officials said.
After the resolution passed, Iran retaliated by installing new, more advanced centrifuges at its underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow.