New Israeli intelligence suggests Iran prepares to attack Israel within days

AXIOS-Aug11th2024

Barak Ravid

The Israeli intelligence community’s updated assessment is that Iran is poised to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran and is likely to do it within days, two sources with direct knowledge of the issue told Axios.

Why it matters: The new intelligence assessment indicates an attack could come before the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal talks planned for Thursday, potentially jeopardizing negotiations at what Israeli officials have said is a “now-or-never” moment for a potential deal between Israel and Hamas.

• But one of the sources who has direct knowledge of the intelligence said the situation is “still fluid.”

The assessment, which was drafted in the last 24 hours, represents a shift, the sources said.

• Over the last week, Israeli intelligence thought Iran hadn’t yet decided on the timing and nature of its response and that international pressure and internal debates could push Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei towards postponing, restraining or minimizing the retaliation against Israel.
• Iran’s mission to the UN in a statement on Friday said “we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”
• But Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant spoke on Sunday with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and told him the Iranian military preparations suggest Iran is getting ready for a large-scale attack, a source with knowledge of the call said.

The big picture: The Biden administration has been preparing for a dramatic week of high-stakes diplomacy to try to prevent war in the region and secure a hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza.

• The results of the coming week will indicate whether the region is going to sink even deeper into crisis and a widening perpetual war — or if, for the first time since Oct. 7, there will be a significant change of course. The outcome could shape President Biden’s legacy.
• On Sunday, the White House’s efforts hit a significant setback when Hamas announced it rejected the invitation by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt for a final round of negotiations over the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal planned for Thursday.

Driving the news: The Israeli intelligence community still thinks Hezbollah is likely to attack first in retaliation for the assassination if its top military commander in Beirut and then Iran could join with a direct attack of its own, the sources said.

• The sources said the attacks by Hezbollah and Iran are likely to be bigger than the one conducted by Iran last April and include the launching of missiles and drones at military targets in central Israel, including in the vicinity of civilian population centers.

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https://www.axios.com/2024/08/11/iran-attack-israel-intelligence-updated