Israel plans massive Iran payback with Middle East on edge

AXIOS-Oct 2nd2024

Israeli officials staring down all-out regional war tell Axios Israel will launch a “significant retaliation” to Tuesday’s massive missile attack within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites.

Why it matters: Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening up a new and far more dangerous front in the war that has engulfed the Middle East.

Iran threatened on Tuesday that if Israel responds with force to the nearly 200 missiles it launched on Tuesday, it will attack again.
If that happens, Israeli officials say all options will be on the table
— including strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“We have a big question mark about how the Iranians are going to respond to an attack, but we take into consideration the possibility that they would go all in, which will be a whole different ball game,” an Israeli official said.

Zoom in: Many Israeli officials point to Iran’s oil facilities as a likely target, but some say targeted assassinations and taking out Iran’s air defense systems are also possibilities.

The Israeli response could include airstrikes from fighter jets as well as clandestine operations similar to the one that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two months ago.

Flashback: Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel in April was answered by a very limited Israeli strike against an S-300 air defense battery in Iran and ended the exchange of direct attacks.

This time around the Israeli retaliation will be much more significant, Israeli officials said.

Driving the news: The Israeli security cabinet convened on Tuesday at an underground government bunker inside a mountain near Jerusalem.

The meeting started as the first wave of Iranian ballistic missiles made its way towards Israel.
Many of the Iranian missiles were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. missile defense systems. Those that weren’t intercepted mostly hit open areas near an air force base in southern Israel, the Mossad headquarters and a military intelligence base north of Tel Aviv.
An Israeli defense official told Axios dozens of Iranian missiles were fired at the Mossad headquarters but none hit inside the compound.

At the top of the security cabinet meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel’s next move.

“Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it,” Netanyahu said in a video his office released.
“The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us, we will attack him,” Netanyahu continued.
Two Israeli officials said the cabinet meeting ended after several hours with the understanding that there will be an Israeli military response but without a clear decision on what that response will be.

Behind the scenes: A senior Israeli official told Axios one of the reasons a decision wasn’t made at the cabinet meeting was because Israeli officials want to consult with the Biden administration.

While Israel is going to respond on its own, it wants to coordinate its plans with the U.S. because of the strategic implications of the situation. Another Iranian attack in response to an Israeli retaliation would require defensive cooperation with U.S. Central Command, more munitions for the Israeli air force and potentially other kinds of U.S. operational support, the Israeli official said.
President Biden said on Tuesday that the U.S. and Israel are discussing the response to the Iranian attack and “it remains to be seen” what the outcome will be.
A U.S. official said in talks between the Biden administration and the Israeli government on Tuesday the U.S. made clear it supports an Israeli response but that it thinks it needs to be measured.
Biden said he will speak with Netanyahu about the response to the Israeli attack. An Israeli official said the call could take place on Wednesday several hours before the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah.