Russia weighs fighter jet and missile deals that would expand Iran’s military power
Business Insider-Oct19th2024
Russia is considering deepening its military support for Iran and its regional militia allies with more advanced weapons that could worsen the confrontation between Iran and Israel. The drones and ballistic missiles Iran has supplied Russia for its Ukraine war may have been leverage to gain more powerful weapons in return: modern anti-ship missiles, advanced air defenses and the Su-35 Flanker air superiority fighter jet it has long-awaited.
Iran has ordered Su-35 fighters and also wants S-400 Triumf air defenses to, among other things, face Israel’s superior missiles and air force. If all these deals do go forward, they would enhance the military capabilities of Iran and its allied militias.
“Delivery of the Su-35S to Iran in any significant numbers will take time, as will training flight crews, maintainers, getting the required infrastructure and ground support equipment in place,” Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology in the Military Sciences team at the United Kingdom’s Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider.
“None of this is likely to be in a position to meaningfully affect Israeli strike plans in the immediate term,” Bronk said.
Israel has vowed to retaliate for the Iranian barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles against it on October 1. Since then, there was a dubious and unconfirmed claim in Iranian media that Russia has already delivered at least one squadron of Su-35s and an unspecified number of S-400s to Tehran.
Past claims of an imminent delivery of Su-35s in the Iranian press proved unfounded but there’s reason to believe Iran may actually get these capable, fourth-generation fighters sometime soon.
Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar with the Middle East Institute’s Syria program, believes the Su-35 deal is a “settled issue” since Russia already delivered Yak-130 trainer jets needed for training Iranian fighter pilots in September 2023.
The Su-35 would allow Iran to partially upgrade its antiquated air force, which hasn’t received new fighter jets since the early 1990s, and is likely to enhance its ability to defend its airspace. Even so, it’s unlikely to shift the balance of power in the region. The Arab Gulf monarchies still possess far more advanced combat aircraft than Iran. Consequently, drones and ballistic missiles will likely remain Tehran’s main means of projecting military power.
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