Israel rehearses ‘major missile strike’ on Iran

THE TIMES-Oct21st2024

Richard Spencer

Israel has been holding military drills for a major ballistic missile attack on Iran, according to American satellite intelligence documents that have been leaked to pro-Iranian social media ­accounts.

The exercises involved at least 16 airborne missiles, 40 state-of-the-art “Rocks” missiles and refuelling tankers, indicating targets across the country.

The scale of the exercise matched the strikes Israel carried out last month on targets belonging to Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Iran-backed group has attacked western shipping in the Red Sea and fired drones at Israel.

There is no indication in the leak as to what the precise targets in Iran are — crucially, whether they are standard military targets or sites associated with its nuclear programme or oil industry. President Biden has tried to warn Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, to avoid both, as striking them would cross Iran’s “red lines” and could trigger a wider regional war.

The intelligence also does not hint at any covert activity that Netanyahu may be planning, in what it says is Israel’s response to an Iranian attack on October 1, when 181 ballistic missiles were fired at Israeli cities and bases.

Israel has previously used covert oper­ations to destroy nuclear and energy sites, kill scientists and wage ­cyberwar, sometimes acting alone and sometimes with the involvement of the United States.

In this case the documents suggest that Biden is relying on intelligence as well as what he is told by Netanyahu. On Friday, asked on a visit to Germany for a meeting of the G7 whether he knew how and when Israel planned to respond to the Iranian attack, Biden replied: “Yes and yes.” Asked if he would reveal the plans, he said: “No and no.”

The two leaked documents marked “top secret” were prepared and presented by the US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, which analyses satellite imagery. They somehow ­became public on Friday and were ­circulated on pro-Iranian Telegram messaging accounts and then more widely. US officials have not disputed their authenticity.

The reports refer mainly to satellite imagery from October 15 and 16. They say the imagery shows that “the Israel Defence Forces continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) activity ­almost certainly for a strike on Iran”. It said an attack could happen without further warning from spy satellites.

They say the Israeli air force has prepared 16 “golden horizon” missiles and 40 ISO2 Rocks, a US-supplied missile that has been provided to Israel in the past few years. Some Rocks were believed to have been used in a previous Israeli strike on Iran since the start of the Gaza conflict, a limited attack on a military base in April.

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