With Trump Returning and Hezbollah Weakened, Iran Strikes a Conciliatory Tone
NY Times-Nov28th2024
In mid-November, Iran dispatched a top official to Beirut to urge Hezbollah to accept a cease-fire with Israel. Around the same time, Iran’s U.N. ambassador met with Elon Musk, an overture to President-elect Donald J. Trump’s inner circle. And on Friday, it will hold talks in Geneva with European countries on a range of issues, including its nuclear program.
All this recent diplomacy marks a sharp change in tone from late October, when Iran was preparing to launch a large retaliatory attack on Israel, with a deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps warning, “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years.”
Iran’s swing from tough talk to a more conciliatory tone in just a few weeks’ time has its roots in developments at home and abroad.
Five Iranian officials, one of them a Revolutionary Guards member, and two former officials said the decision to recalibrate was prompted by Mr. Trump winning the Nov. 5 election, with concerns about an unpredictable leader who, in his first term, pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
But it was also driven by Israel’s decimation in Lebanon of Hezbollah — the closest and most important of Iran’s militant allies — and by economic crises at home, where the currency has dropped steadily against the dollar and an energy shortage looms as winter approaches.
Taken together, these challenges forced Iran to recalibrate its approach, to one of defusing tensions, the current Iranian officials familiar with the planning said. They asked for anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, which could put them in danger.
They said Iran suspended plans to strike Israel following Mr. Trump’s election because it did not want to exacerbate tensions with the incoming administration, which was already lining up cabinet nominees who were hostile to Iran and staunch supporters of Israel. Mr. Trump’s stated plans to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, however, appealed to Iran, the officials said.
Before the U.S. election was even held, Iran sent word to the Biden administration that, contrary to claims by some American intelligence officials, it was not plotting to assassinate Mr. Trump.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that Iran welcomed the truce between Hezbollah and Israel, adding that “Tehran maintains its right to respond to Israel’s airstrikes on Iran last month, but it will take into consideration regional developments such as the cease-fire in Lebanon.”
In the view of Sanam Vakil, the Middle East director for Chatham House, a British policy research group, it seems clear that Iran is responding to the coming changes in Washington, as well as the changed domestic and regional geopolitical landscape it now faces.
“It all came together, and the shift in tone is about protecting Iran’s interests.” Ms. Vakil said.
Iran’s opaque regime, and a governance rife with factional rivalries, can sometimes lead to mixed messages to external audiences and sharp internal differences, though the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, always has the final word.
The hard-line president Ebrahim Raisi died this year and a moderate, Masoud Pezeshkian, was elected in July to replace him, with a mandate to bring some economic and social reform and engage with the West. Mr. Pezeshkian has a lot of power over domestic policy and some influence in foreign affairs.
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