The Prospects for a Lasting Agreement Between the United States and Iran on the Iranian Nuclear Program

By: David Parsian

Introduction

The Islamic Republic of Iran stands at a crossroads, facing significant internal and external challenges. Domestically, economic hardship, social unrest, and the question of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s succession shape the country’s political landscape. Externally, tensions with the United States, Israel, and their allies—particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions—continue to escalate.

For decades, Iran’s nuclear program has been a focal point of U.S.-Iran relations, with periodic diplomatic efforts failing to yield a lasting agreement. In light of the ongoing Gaza conflict and shifting geopolitical dynamics, a critical question emerges: Can a sustainable diplomatic solution be reached without triggering military conflict in the Middle East?

Geopolitical Framework

Iran’s nuclear program is viewed as a major threat by the United States and its allies, particularly Israel. Meanwhile, Iran sees its nuclear capabilities as both a security guarantee and a strategic bargaining tool. Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 60% and beyond raises international concerns, despite Tehran’s insistence that its program is for peaceful purposes. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has highlighted a lack of transparency, while the European parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have warned of the potential activation of the snapback mechanism, which could reinstate U.N. sanctions.

Iran has aligned itself with Russia, China, and North Korea in what Western analysts call the “Axis of Autocracies.” However, this alliance remains fragile. While Iran and Russia have deepened economic and military cooperation, China continues to engage with caution, prioritizing its long-term strategic interests over a firm commitment to Tehran.

Iran’s Domestic Challenges

Iran faces mounting internal pressures, from economic crises exacerbated by international sanctions to widespread protests. In response, the regime has adopted a dual strategy: allowing limited social freedoms while maintaining strict repression. Loosening dress code regulations and tolerating online discussions serve as tactical maneuvers to prevent larger-scale uprisings, while the government continues to emphasize national unity as a means to avoid negotiations with the West.

Power Dynamics and Succession in Iran

Iran’s leadership is divided between hardliners—primarily within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—who push for an aggressive foreign policy, and moderates within the government and diplomatic corps, who may favor negotiations due to economic hardships. The question of who will succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains unresolved. A leadership transition could bring significant shifts in Iran’s foreign policy.

Economic Crisis and Its Implications

Iran’s economy is in crisis due to sanctions, mismanagement, and corruption. High inflation and unemployment have led to widespread economic distress, eroding public trust in the government. This economic reality may push the regime toward diplomacy in an effort to ease sanctions and stabilize the country.

Socio-Political Tensions and the Role of Women

A growing divide between Iran’s youth and its ruling clerics is fueling social tensions. Younger generations demand greater personal freedoms, while the government continues to rely on repression. Women have emerged as key figures in the resistance, leading protests against state-imposed restrictions. Their increasing organization could drive deeper societal changes, impacting Iran’s long-term political landscape.

Regional Actors and the Nuclear Conflict

Iran’s nuclear ambitions have direct implications for regional stability. Israel views Iran’s program as an existential threat and has repeatedly signaled a willingness to use military force. Saudi Arabia seeks closer U.S. cooperation to counterbalance Iran’s influence. Meanwhile, Russia and China continue to support Iran economically and militarily, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

Western intelligence reports indicate that Iran may be only months away from producing a nuclear weapon, though Tehran insists its program is solely for civilian use. If tensions continue to rise, military confrontation between Israel and Iran could become inevitable.

The Collapse of the “Axis of Resistance”

Iran has invested heavily in regional proxy groups, particularly in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. However, the collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024 dealt a significant blow to Iran’s regional influence. Increased Israeli attacks on Iranian positions in Syria and disruptions to supply routes have further weakened Tehran’s ability to project power. Despite these setbacks, Iran continues to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, though both groups have suffered losses.

U.S. Policy and Diplomatic Options

The re-election of Donald Trump has revived the “maximum pressure” strategy, characterized by strict sanctions and the maintenance of military options. However, Iran remains defiant, banking on economic support from Russia and China to withstand U.S. pressure.

Washington faces a delicate balancing act: bringing Iran to the negotiating table without escalating into direct conflict. A pragmatic approach could involve offering economic relief in exchange for nuclear restrictions, while maintaining diplomatic channels in anticipation of a potential shift in Iran’s leadership.

The Risk of Military Conflict

The Middle East stands on the brink of further escalation. The war in Gaza, Iranian support for the Houthis, and increasing hostilities with Israel raise the risk of military confrontation. The U.S. has explicitly warned Iran against proxy attacks, with President Trump stating that Tehran will be held accountable for actions carried out by its allies.

Meanwhile, Russia and some Arab states are engaged in quiet diplomacy to de-escalate tensions. Iran demands negotiations without pressure, rejecting accusations that it destabilizes the region. To prevent a catastrophic conflict, the U.S. must pursue multilateral solutions while maintaining strategic leverage.

Conclusion

A long-term agreement between the United States and Iran remains uncertain due to complex geopolitical and domestic factors. Iran’s weakening regional influence and economic struggles may eventually force a strategic recalibration. However, diplomatic efforts require patience, careful negotiation, and a deep understanding of Iran’s internal dynamics.

The coming months will be crucial. The U.S. and its allies must navigate a delicate path—pressuring Iran to negotiate while avoiding actions that could reinforce its regional ambitions. Likewise, Iran faces a fundamental choice: pursue economic recovery through diplomacy or risk further isolation and military conflict. Failure to reach a diplomatic solution could lead to another regional war, with potentially disastrous consequences for global stability.

You may read this articl in Farsi at https://akhbar-rooz.com/1404/01/05/11961/