Moscow may gain key role in Iran nuclear deal as US talks progress

The Guardians -April20th2025

Russia could play a key role in a deal on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, with Moscow being touted not only as a possible destination for Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but also as a possible arbiter of deal breaches.

Donald Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers in 2018 during his first term, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.

Four hours of indirect talks between the US and Iran in Rome on Saturday, under the mediation of Oman, made significant progress, according to US officials. Further technical talks are due in Geneva this week, followed by another high-level diplomatic meeting next weekend in Oman.

Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who was at the heart of the Rome talks, wants an agreement wrapped up within 60 days, but is likely to face resistance from Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who believes the levels of distrust and the technical nature of the talks make such a swift agreement unlikely.

The two most daunting issues are the storage or destruction of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the external guarantees that can be provided to Iran if the US was to breach an agreement to lift economic sanctions in return for Iran putting its civil nuclear programme back under external supervision by the UN inspectorate, the IAEA. Iran wants a guarantee of consequences for the US if it pulls out of or breaches another deal.

Iran wants to keep its uranium stockpiles inside the country, but the US rejects this and wants either the stockpiles’ destruction or a transfer to a third country, such as Russia.

Iran believes it has received assurances that the US objective is not the entire dismantling of its nuclear programme. Before the Rome talks, in an intervention that sowed confusion in Iran and the US, Witkoff had on social media seemed to endorse such an objective, causing consternation in Iran, but in Rome he gave the impression that this was largely domestic political messaging.

Mohamed Amersi, a member of the advisory board at the Wilson Center, a Washington thinktank, said: “From the Iranian perspective there had been some conflicting messages on social media and in interviews about the US wanting the complete elimination of their nuclear programme and that was not at all what Araghchi had agreed, so the first assurance was that there had been no expansion in the US objectives. If he had not got that assurance it’s likely the whole negotiation would have been wrapped up, and ended immediately.”

On guarantees, Iran believes the only secure agreement is a treaty signed by US Congress, but Araghchi was told it would be anyone’s guess whether Trump could get such an agreement through Congress given the strength of pro-Israeli opinion there