Israel´s War on Iran – a Preliminary Analysis

Dr. Mirko Wittwar & Dr. Fariborz Saremi

This war is essentially Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu´s war. He has been calling for it for
Years, if not decades, and there can be no doubt that the decision to strike now was his. One
Reason is that his political and legal survival can only be secured by prolonging, extending and
Intensifying the war which started as a reaction to the Hamas attack of October 7th, 2023.
Otherwise, he would hardly be able to escape snap elections which, according to all opinion
polls, he would lose, which would in all probability mean the end of his political career and,
given his pending corruption trial, perhaps even bring him into prison.

One other motive was the undermining of the US-Iranian talks on Iran´s nuclear programme.
Netanyahu does not believe in negotiations with Iran. 1 He has no trust at all in Iran´s
leadership. And it cannot be denied that he has a point there. Immediately before Israel started
action, the IAEA officially accused Iran of not complying with its obligations under the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, in fact of cheating the Agency. And Iran´s nuclear
programme does give reason to be concerned. Its sheer size and nature would not make any
sense at all if it was really meant exclusively for civilian purposes, as claimed by the regime.
And the recent progress of this programme has been alarming indeed: uranium enrichment has
passed the 60% degree. From there it is only a tiny step to the production of nuclear weapons,
in fact this is now only a question of the political will. And nobody knows if perhaps behind
closed doors this decision has already been made. And then, given Donald Trump´s typical
way of making deals, what Netanyahu feared most was an agreement which would certainly
have been more or less similar to the one achieved under US President Obama and whose
shortcomings he had always been criticising. Even worse, Trump might even have been
expected to make a deal somewhat like the one he made with the Taliban, when he gave them
all they wanted without getting anything in return, just to be present this as a great success,

although actually it was a sell-out of American interests. For Netanyahu, the US-Iran talks
were a threat rather than a possible solution.

Compromise between Israel and Iran is extremely difficult: the aspirations pursued by the
Mullahs aim at a hegemony over the entire Near East, something which can only be achieved
by way of possessing nuclear weapons – either for actual use or for blackmail (probably rather
for the latter). For Israel, on the other hand, nuclear weapons in the hand of any country in the
region, and particularly in the hands of a state which almost defines itself by the desire to
destroy Israel, is absolutely unacceptable. For the Mullahs, their aspirations at hegemony are

indispensable for their ultimate goal, which is once and for all setting the score between Shia
and Sunnism. The destruction of Israel is only one step on the road in this context, yet the
threat for Israel is no less real. Israel simply cannot accept just the prospect of Iran possessing
nuclear weapons, whereas the Mullah regime cannot give up on its aspirations at regional
hegemony, for which nuclear weapons are indispensable, because this would mean lastingly
accepting the – in their eyes – Sunni heresy, the final defeat, if not destruction, of which is
one of the founding principles of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Under these circumstances any calls for negotiations, for a `deal´, are somewhat naïve. After
all, as described above, it has not least been the prospect of a `deal´ which triggered this war.
Netanyahu, who already rejected President Obama´s agreement with Iran because he had no
trust at all in the Mullahs, will certainly not accept anything which might look like a repeat.
What he wants is the destruction once and for all of Iran´s capability to wage war against
Israel, and he is unlikely to be stopped now. And the facts seem to confirm Netanyahu´s
distrust: on June 16 th , 2025, the Wall Street Journal reports Iran´s alleged readiness for
restarting the talks about the country´s nuclear programme. On that same day, however, the
Iranian government officially announced its pending revocation of its participation in the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. And three days before the US-Iran talks were supposed to
be continued, obviously the hardliners in Tehran prevailed and the Iranian government
officially announced that it was about opening yet another enrichment site – a slap in US
President Trump´s face. Given such a contradictory behaviour, from Israel´s point of view any
talks are meaningless.
US President Trump, on the other hand, doubtlessly did not want this war. But the events of
the past few days have demonstrated that towards Israel he is not in a position to exert enough
pressure to make Netanyahu stop the war. It is striking that Netanyahu started the attacks on
Iran although Trump had publicly called on Israel not to attack the country. After all, although
Trump was certainly informed beforehand, Netanyahu simply pushed him out of the way.
This was based on the ice-cold calculus that for home political reasons Trump must continue
his support for Israel, at least as far as weapons supplies are concerned – and this is what
counts. Netanyahu reduced Trump to a negligible figure, in fact made him look ridiculous: he
not only sabotaged Trump´s `deal´ with Iran – which might well have been at the expense of
Israel, like the `deal´ he made with the Huthi in Yemen – he also extracted a very reluctant
green light from him, a green light nevertheless, thus making him politically complicit with
his attack on Iran. How weakened Trump´s position in the Near East is now became obvious
by his social media statements of Friday 13 th , 2025: a lamentable, painfully pathetic attempt to
jump on the bandwagon and to cover up the total collapse of his Near East diplomacy. His
further claims made things even worse: on June 15 th White House channels claimed that
Trump had vetoed the assassination of Iran´s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, a claim which

lacks all credibility, as when it comes to its sworn enemies Israel has never allowed a say to
anybody else. This claim was another obvious attempt to display influence which is currently
not given. This moment, Trump has no say at all in what is going on between Israel and Iran.
Trump would certainly like to put Israel under pressure to end its attacks on Iran, however, to
have it in his own words, he hasn´t got the cards. 2
Given the fact that on the one hand none of the warring factions is able to give in while the
only power which in theory could stop Israel – the USA – is out for the moment, one must
expect this war to last for some time – certainly weeks, and perhaps months, maybe even
longer. Although according to the IAEA the enrichment site at Natans seems to have been
widely destroyed, other sites, such as that of Fordo, are tough nuts to crack, and according to
current information Fordo is as yet mostly unharmed.
But what is Israel´s strategic goal? At first sight – and officially claimed – Israel´s strategic
goal is the destruction of Iran´s nuclear and military capabilities. However, a closer look
reveals that this is less a strategic than a tactical goal: nuclear sites can be reconstructed,
military capabilities can be rebuilt. This may take some time, but the example of North Korea
demonstrates what a regime which is grimly determined can achieve despite the heaviest of
sanctions. The achievement of Israel´s declared goals in Iran will at best result in a respite of a
couple of years, even more so as after this attack the Iranian leadership will more than ever be
set on getting nuclear armament to prevent any other such attack in the future. Such a respite
will not fundamentally change the situation and is thus rather a tactical achievement. This will
not do.
A fundamental change of the Israel-Iran situation can only be achieved by way of regime
change. As long as the Mullah regime is in power, it will continue to work against Israel and
to pursue its other above mentioned objectives. The Mullah regime must thus be toppled.
However, this is almost impossible from the outside. Outside intervention, such as Israel´s
current attack, may trigger change but will not be sufficient. The regime must be toppled from
inside Iran. Yet, Israel´s military action may still work towards such an end. Right in the first
hours of the attacks a whole sway of military leaders, most of all of the Revolutionary Guards,
were killed by purposeful strikes, and these killings were then continued. This may basically
indicate a possibility. Should Israel succeed with eliminating Iran´s current leadership on a
broad basis while at the same time smashing the regime´s power infrastructure – the technical
means the military, the police, the paramilitary forces, the secret services – the Mullahs will
no longer be able to maintain their control over the country, simply because they lack the
personnel and technical means. Israel´s way of dealing with Hezbollah in Lebanon serves as a
model. However, in the case of Iran this is much more difficult to achieve. First of all, like
Hezbollah´s Hassan Nasrallah was killed, Iran´s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would have
to be taken out, as well as any potential successor, indeed the whole inner circle. The
leadership of the Revolutionary Guards has already been decimated, but the Revolutionary
Guards would have to be battered into insignificance, something which has by far not been
achieved yet. Other institutions to be targeted likewise would be e. g. that band of street thugs,
the Basij, which form yet another pillar of the regime. It is obvious that in the case of Iran the
destruction of both leading figures and power infrastructure is much more difficult to achieve

than in the case of Hezbollah, simply given the sheer size of the country and the extent of its
institutions of suppression. Should one succeed with this, however, the path to a popular
rising might be opened. If this is really possible cannot be decided here. But the toppling of
the Mullah regime, in one way or the other, is the only strategic goal that makes sense.
Otherwise Israel´s current war would achieve nothing more than a longer or shorter period of
respite, while the tensions in the region would go on, to result in the next war in a couple of
years or so.

1 This is no contradiction to the fact that Israel´s attack on Iran was planned over a long time. It was clear that one day the country would have to take action to prevent the Mullah regime from producing nuclear weapons. The only question was when, and this question was answered by the current developments.

2 It seems as if meanwhile Netanyahu has completely U-turned Trump this moment it can no longer be ruled out that the USA will join Israel´s war efforts.