On the surface, the bloody crackdown affirmed the unity of Iran’s ruling system — centered on the ayatollah and the Revolutionary Guards, estimated to number about 150,000 — and its willingness to take ruthless action to ensure its survival. But Iran experts said the bloody response was also a sign of the system’s growing weakness, exposing the limits of Ayatollah Khamenei’s 37-year rule as he wrestles with surging domestic unrest and intense foreign pressure at the same time.

On Thursday, Mr. Trump said that an American “armada” was heading toward Iran, but that he hoped he would not have to use it. He again warned the Iranian government against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program.

That combination of factors put the ruling system under immense strain, said Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School in California and the author of “Vanguard of the Imam,” a history of the Revolutionary Guards. “Right off the bat, they saw the protests as an existential threat,” he said. “They turned to live fire really quickly because their weakness was acute, and they knew it.”

With the ayatollah’s legitimacy under open challenge, the Revolutionary Guards are emerging as the core of the system. “You have this aging theocrat whose days are numbered,” Mr. Ostovar said. “And you have security forces that are taking an increasingly aggressive response to any threat to the regime.”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/24/world/middleeast/iran-protests-ayatollah-revolutionary-guards.html