Why Any Plausible Iran Deal Is a Humiliation for Trump

Why Any Plausible Iran Deal Is a Humiliation for Trump

NEWYORKER-May26th2026

ver the weekend, President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran were close to a deal that would end the war that the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran in late February, and which has killed thousands of people in Iran. (Thousands of civilians have also been killed by the connected Israeli campaign in Lebanon.) The terms of the discussed deal are not yet known, but media reports suggest that in return for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz—the closing of which has led to a global economic crisis—the United States would end its blockade of Iran, and Iran would agree to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. (Late on Monday, American forces carried out strikes on Iranian targets, and Iran has threatened retaliation.)

On Sunday, I spoke by phone with Danny Citrinowicz, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, and an expert on the Middle East. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why Iranian hard-liners have been strengthened by this war; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s miscalculations and potential political vulnerabilities; and why Trump pulling out of President Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal with Iran was one of the greatest blunders of the twenty-first century.

How would you characterize the contours of this potential deal, and is there any way to spin it as something other than a humiliating failure for the U.S.?

Unfortunately, no. Trump had to choose between a bad option and a worse one, and it seems like, even though we don’t know what will happen in any deal, or if there will even be one, that he has chosen the very bad one. But it is still the best option that he had. We have to remember what happened on February 28th—that Israel and the United States launched this campaign to topple the regime. In fact, they ended up strengthening it. Opening the strait is not an achievement, since its closing was a by-product of the war itself. The Iranians are going to get some money, and sanctions relief may come after the deal is signed, too. If they don’t get money from this, they won’t do it. So, in that regard, what we’re facing right now is a war that may have been a tactical success for the U.S., but is a strategic failure.

But I think Trump is fed up with the current situation, and I think that he’s also afraid of escalation. He could escalate tomorrow, but I think he’s afraid of having boots on the ground. And I think he might be starting to understand that even escalation won’t change the strategic situation, because the Iranians are not going to capitulate. A blockade won’t do it; hitting energy facilities won’t do it; nothing will. And they’re ready to retaliate. So Trump didn’t have any other options besides this deal.