Analysis: Increased Israel-Iran confrontations risk war

Aljazeera- July 26th 2022

By Thomas O Falk

The tension between Iran and Israel continues to grow, and with the nuclear deal between Tehran and the West looking increasingly unlikely to be restored, further escalation might be a possibility.

Events last month in Turkey highlight the seriousness of the situation.

ive Iranians, who were reportedly tasked with assassinating a former Israeli diplomat and other Israeli citizens in Turkey, were arrested by a Turkish special unit in Istanbul, although Iran denied any involvement.

And last week, Iran arrested what it said was a Mossad cell suspected of attempting to carry out attacks on sensitive sites in the country.

Meanwhile, Iran and the United States continue to trade accusations about who is to blame for the deadlock in nuclear deal negotiations.

In Tehran, the position towards the nuclear deal is largely the same as before, Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said.

Meanwhile, Iran and the United States continue to trade accusations about who is to blame for the deadlock in nuclear deal negotiations.

“We are, in many ways, in a worse situation than in 2015. Even if the JCPOA is revived, the manner in which [US President Joe] Biden has fumbled diplomacy leaves us in a position where neither side believes the deal will last longer than two years.”

That is because the element of the nuclear deal that allows for international oversight over Iran’s nuclear-related imports will end in 2025, meaning that even if the two sides agree to restore the deal now, tensions are likely to ramp up again as 2025 approaches.

“As a result, the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Iran will be much higher than in 2015, even if Biden returns the US to the agreement,” said Parsi.

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