A new Iran nuclear deal might be on the horizon

Opinion-Washington Post- June 23rd,2023

By: Dennis Ross

Dennis Ross, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, is the counselor and William Davidson distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute.

Is the Biden administration’s strategy on Iran’s nuclear ambitions drifting dangerously from prevention to containment?

Reports are cropping up that the administration and the Iranians are discussing new agreements that would, in theory, seek to limit the Tehran’s nuclear program. While denying any deals are imminent, a senior Biden administration official acknowledged that there have been indirect talks with the Iranian government in Oman.

The Iranians are being less coy. Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, formerly the head of the Foreign Policy and National Security Committee in the Iranian parliament, claims that unwritten understandings have already been reached. The Biden administration “will close its eyes to some of Iran’s energy deals, and [allow] the release of some of Iran’s frozen funds in return for Iran refraining from expanding its nuclear program more than the current level,” he said.

Furthermore, in the past few weeks, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has alluded to “heroic flexibility” and said that a deal with the West is acceptable provided it doesn’t touch the Iranian nuclear infrastructure. His rhetoric was similar in 2015, when the original Iran nuclear deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — was reached.

In recent meetings with Israeli officials in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, I heard that a limited deal appeared to be on the horizon. The outlines would be as follows: Iran would not enrich uranium above 60 percent and not add to the amount it has already enriched to that level. In addition, Tehran would release the dual U.S.-Iranian citizens they have imprisoned. The Biden administration in return would put no new sanctions on the Iranian regime and would offer waivers that would allow the Iranians to gain access to roughly $20 billion currently in frozen accounts.

As evidence that such a process was already producing steps, several Israeli officials cited the Biden administration decision this month to grant the Iraqis a sanctions waiver to pay the Iranians $2.76 billion for a debt it owed for Iranian oil and gas.

Iran has already accumulated five bombs’-worth of uranium enriched to 60 percent — a level that Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency , says has “no justifiable civilian purpose.” If the Iranians continue at their current pace, they will have 10 bombs’ worth of near-weapons-grade fissile material by the end of 2023.

The Israelis are very worried. The near-weapons-grade material is one concern. Iran’s hardening of its nuclear infrastructure is another, especially because Iran is making its nuclear facilities less and less vulnerable to military strikes. Being in a position to potentially produce a large number of nuclear bombs from facilities that might be invulnerable to attack could deny Israel a military option for preempting the Iranian nuclear threat. Given Jewish history, no Israeli government is going to wait and accept the possibility of losing the military means to prevent a perceived existential threat.