After Assad’s ouster in Syria, will Iran’s regime fall next?

DW-Dec17th2024

Amir Soltanzadeh

The surprise, swift collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria has been met with cautious optimism by many in Iran, where those disillusioned with their own authoritarian Islamic clerical regime see parallels between their struggles and those of the Syrian people.

For Iranians, Assad’s fall is significant because Syria has been a cornerstone of Tehran’s regional strategy, symbolizing not only geopolitical influence but also a shared model of authoritarian resilience.

The reverberations of developments in Syria are therefore being felt across Iran’s social and political landscape.

Assad’s ouster has revived hope among Iranians for potential change at home, especially after the Iranian government’s brutal crackdown on the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement, which left hundreds dead and thousands imprisoned.

The situation has even prompted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to make a public statement.

“Anyone whose analysis or statements dishearten the people is committing a crime and will be dealt with. Some do this from abroad using Persian-language media, but no one inside the country should engage in such behavior,” Khamenei warned last week.

His remarks underline the regime’s concerns about a domino effect, particularly as Assad’s ouster highlights vulnerabilities in regimes that suppress dissent and rely heavily on external support.

The Iranian leadership may fear that similar destabilizing factors, such as widespread economic hardship and waning regional alliances, could resonate domestically and threaten its own stability.

Regime’s supporters ‘in shock’

Hossein Razzagh, a political activist and former prisoner who has been detained multiple times since the Green Movement protests in 2009, believes Assad’s downfall has primarily unsettled the staunchest supporters of the Islamic Republic.

These supporters, often comprising families of the regime’s elite and those with ties to the military and clerical establishment, are deeply invested in the regime’s survival and have been shaken by the loss of one of its key regional allies.

“The collapse of Assad has left the regime’s hardline supporters in shock,” Razzagh told DW, pointing to reactions among the families of those who died fighting for the regime in Syria, known in Iran as the “Defenders of the Shrine.”

Razzagh said, “This situation has shaken the propaganda machine of the Islamic Republic. Many of its die-hard supporters are now questioning if Iran itself is on the verge of collapse.”

He added that the regime’s current loss of credibility among its most loyal followers is unprecedented, even when compared to events like the 2009 Green Movement, the 2019 fuel protests, or the aftermath of the downing of the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752.

“The psychological state of society is such that any spark, whether Khamenei’s death or another significant setback, could signal the beginning of the end for the regime,” he said.

Read more on original:

https://www.dw.com/en/after-assads-ouster-in-syria-will-irans-regime-fall-next/a-71071630