Ahead of Biden Mideast trip, Iran nuclear deal looms large

AL Monitor- July 9th 2022

US President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East next week will set the context for what will likely be the final round, or rounds, of indirect talks with Iran to agree on restarting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The indirect talks on the Iran nuclear deal in Doha between US and Iranian officials, brokered by EU Iran envoy Enrique Mora, are increasingly complemented by a strengthened US diplomatic and deterrent posture in the Persian Gulf, in process for the last year and formalized by the Biden trip.

The regional strategy is a turnaround from 2015, when US partners in the region felt sidelined by the JCPOA, negotiated between Iran and the US, UK, France, Germany, the EU, Russia and China. This time, US regional partners are actually, well, partners, in the Biden strategy.

First, the Biden Administration has reset its early scratchy ties with Saudi Arabia. There is no ‘”deterrence,’” or meaningful Arab posture toward Iran, or plan to end the war in Yemen, without the Kingdom securely within the US security fold. The Biden team has adapted, not without domestic political friction, to the realities of diplomacy and deterrence in the Middle East by opening a new chapter with Saudi Arabia.

Second, Arab leaders have taken up their own diplomatic initiatives with Iran, in parallel with the JCPOA talks in Doha. For example:

Two days after the end of the first round of Doha talks, Qatar Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in Tehran to discuss the nuclear talks and regional security.
The next day, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, met Oman Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi in Muscat.
Last month, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi shuttled from Riyadh to Tehran to advance rapprochement between the two countries. Iraq has hosted five rounds of meetings between Iranian and Saudi officials in Baghdad.

The Iraq-brokered Iran-Saudi talks have complemented the efforts of Washington’s Yemen envoy, Tim Lenderking, to sustain a UN ceasefire, now in its fourth month. Iran President Ebrahim Raisi, at a press conference with Kadhimi in Tehran on June 26, said, “The continuation of this war is fruitless and will not result in anything but the suffering of the Yemeni people, so this war must be ended as soon as possible and the ceasefire can be a step towards resolving the issues.” That is Iran’s strongest statement to date in support of the ceasefire.

Third, the Biden administration is advancing enhanced security coordination among Israel and Arab states, a significant boost to a US-led deterrent posture and an essential complement to any diplomacy.

As Ben Caspit reports, “In March, a meeting was reportedly held under US auspices between the army chiefs of Israel and Saudi Arabia and attended by high-ranking officers from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Israel hopes Biden will announce the launch of this alliance during his visit, and is also expecting news that will herald progress in Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia.”

In addition, adds Caspit, “Israel hopes to hear from Biden that chances of signing a nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers are not high, and to receive from him a promise that the sanctions on Iran will not be lifted but rather tightened. Israel aspires to reach a joint action plan with the United States in response to every possible scenario, including a surprise Iranian push toward an agreement.”

Jared Szuba reports that while the recent US-backed defense cooperation between Israel and Gulf states has been a giant step forward, the Biden administration is unlikely to immediately deliver the levels of commitment that Israel and Arab states may be seeking. For now, the US is weighing how it can support air defense cooperation against Iran as a start to broader regional defense partnership, NSC spokesperson John Kirby told reporters yesterday.