America and Iran try to step back from the brink over nukes

America and Iran try to step back from the brink over nukes

The Economist – June 22nd 2023

For the past five years, since Donald Trump withdrew America from the 2015 nuclear pact with Iran, American presidents have sought a new bargain with their old foe. Mr Trump, then president, predicted that tough sanctions would compel Iran to sign a “new and lasting deal”. Joe Biden’s administration promised smart diplomacy to craft a “longer and stronger” agreement.

Those efforts are sputtering towards an unsatisfying conclusion. Instead of making a deal, Iran has enriched more uranium to higher purity than ever before: it is on the threshold of being a nuclear-armed state. Desperate to halt its progress, America wants to negotiate a tacit understanding that would offer Iran a dollop of cash to freeze its nuclear work where it stands.

It is a far cry from the pact in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (jcpoa), which imposed strict limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment. Yet it is probably the best deal on offer right now, and it would be tolerated (though hardly celebrated) by Arab states keen to avoid a crisis.

The clearest picture of Iran’s progress is found in a report in May from the International Atomic Energy Agency (iaea), the un’s nuclear watchdog. The agency said Iran had accumulated 114kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a level that has no civilian use. That is enough to produce at least two nuclear bombs if refined further to the weapons-grade level of 90%.

At Fordow, a fortified facility built into a mountain, inspectors who tested environmental samples found traces of uranium enriched to 83.7% purity. Iran blamed that on a momentary hardware glitch, and the iaea found no evidence that Iran had amassed a stockpile of such highly enriched uranium. Still, the shock discovery added urgency to diplomatic efforts.

The emerging deal, by all accounts, would be modest. Iran would promise not to enrich beyond the 60% threshold, though it would not have to reduce its uranium stockpile. It now has 4,385kg of the stuff at varying levels of purity. The jcpoa, by comparison, limited it to just 300kg at 3.67% and nothing above that level. There is optimistic talk that Iran would make promises unrelated to its nuclear work. It might release at least three American citizens held for years on bogus charges.

America would offer money in return. It would not lift sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, as it did under the jcpoa, but it would enforce them less fiercely. It could also release Iranian funds frozen abroad, such as $7bn in oil revenue stuck in South Korea. That would be a welcome infusion for a regime struggling with high inflation and unnerved by months of protests last year.