Biden briefed that Iran attack timing and details still unclear, U.S. Officials say

Axios-Aug5th2024

Barak Ravid

President Biden and Vice President Harris were told by their national security team on Monday that it is still unclear when Iran and Hezbollah are likely to launch an attack against Israel and what specifically the attack might entail, three U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: Biden administration officials say they are working to prepare for countering the possible attacks and mobilizing diplomatic pressure on Iran and Hezbollah to try to minimize their retaliation for the assassinations by Israel of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s top military commander in Beirut.

Driving the news: Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his G7 counterpart on Sunday that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel as soon as the next 24-48 hours, Axios reported.

• But in the meeting Biden and Harris had with the National Security Council in the White House Situation Room on Monday the assessment was more nuanced, U.S. officials said.
• The officials said Biden and Harris were told U.S. intelligence expects a scenario involving two waves of attacks — one from Hezbollah and one from Iran and several of its other proxies.

But it was still unclear to U.S. intelligence who is going to attack first and what kind of attack they are are going to conduct, the officials said.

• One U.S. official said intelligence indicates the response by Iran and Hezbollah is still a “work in progress” and both are undecided about what exactly they want to do.

State of play: According to the White House, during the Situation Room meeting Biden and Harris were updated about several U.S. soldiers who were seriously injured in a rocket attack on Monday by pro-Iranian militias on a the Al Asad Airbase in Iraq.

• “They discussed the steps we are taking to defend our forces and respond to any attack against our personnel in a manner and place of our choosing,” the White House said in a statement.
• A U.S. official said the Pentagon expects more attacks by pro-Iranian militias against U.S. forces in the region in the coming days and stressed that growing tensions in the region are making the militias feel less restrained by Iran to attack U.S. forces than they were in recent months.

Behind the scenes: The White House said Biden and Harris were also briefed on continued diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional tension and to bring the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal to a conclusion.

• Blinken spoke on Monday with Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani and asked him to press Iran and Hezbollah to de-escalate. He also stressed that the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, which Qatar is a key mediator in, is still a top priority for Biden, a source with knowledge of the call said.
• State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a briefing with reporters on Monday that the Biden administration conveyed a message to Iran that the U.S. will defend Israel if it is attacked.
• “We don’t think such an attack is inevitable and we are trying to prevent it,” Miller said.