Biden’s mounting nuclear threats from North Korea, Iran

abc News

As diplomacy stalls, the peril posed by Iran and North Korea grows.

June 10, 2022,

While the world’s focus has been trained on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling over Ukraine, two other longstanding threats to U.S. national security have been not so quietly amplifying their ability to wreak international havoc.

In recent months, North Korea has test-launched an unprecedented number of ballistic missiles, and the U.S. assesses the country has imminent plans to resume nuclear testing after a five-year hiatus.

The U.N.’s atomic watchdog announced this week that Iran is mere weeks away from enriching enough uranium to potentially manufacture a nuclear explosive device and is blatantly blocking its surveillance efforts.

The threats posed by a Tehran or Pyongyang with weapons of mass destruction are vast, and the U.S. diplomatic approach to both countries is nuanced.

But the core question facing the Biden administration is straightforward: What — if anything — can it do to stop to prevent Iran and North Korea from becoming nuclear powers?

A cold shoulder from North Korea

The State Department has publicly messaged to Pyongyang that the door for diplomacy is open, but the U.S. Special Representative to North Korea says that sentiment has been communicated through “high-level personal messages from senior U.S. officials” via “private channels” as well.

Sung Kim revealed on Tuesday that in recent weeks, officials have even laid out specific proposals for humanitarian assistance in response to the Hermit Kingdom’s coronavirus outbreak.

But these offers have gone unanswered, Kim said, as the country continues “to show no indication that is interested in engaging.”

The silence of Pyongyang’s leadership is in direct contrast to the explosive missile launches that regularly light up the sky over the waters surrounding the Korean peninsula.

“North Korea has now launched 31 ballistic missiles in 2022. The most ballistic missiles it has ever launched in a single year, surpassing its previous record of 25 in 2019. And it’s only June,” Kim said, adding the country has “obviously done the preparations” to resume nuclear testing as well.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said earlier this week the response to any such test by North Korea would be “swift and forceful,” but so far, no official has publicly stated what exactly the reaction would be.

State Department Spokesperson Ned Price downplayed the extraordinary displays of force on Monday, calling them “cyclical.”

“We’ve seen periods of provocation; we’ve seen periods of engagement. It is very clear at the moment that we are in the former,” Price said.

But Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher at the RAND Corporation who has previously worked with Department of Defense, says it might be time for the U.S. to take a bolder approach.

Iran on the verge

As the top brass of the International Atomic Energy Agency warned of Iran’s stockpiling of enriched Uranium and failure to comply with U.N. inspectors this week, the U.S. and its allies successfully pushed for a censure.

The rebuke is largely symbolic, but it may be telling when it comes to the administration’s dimming hopes of returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the 2015 nuclear agreement former President Trump withdrew from in 2018.

When President Joe Biden entered the White House, top officials promised “a longer and stronger” deal. The administration loosened the enforcement of some sanctions and held back in forums like IAEA meetings in order to create space for negotiations. But after more than a year of indirect, stop-and-go talks, the odds of reviving the even the original JCPOA seem slim to none.

The Biden administration said in February it would soon be “impossible” to return to the deal given the pace of Iran’s nuclear advances. But Ali Vaez, the Iran Project Director at The International Crisis Group and former Senior Political Affairs Officer at the U.N., says there is still time—but not much.

“Iran has never been closer to the verge of nuclear weapons,” Vaez said. “And restoring the JCPOA is going to become more and more difficult as time passed.”

While Vaez notes that having the material to make an explosive isn’t the same as having the capability to manufacture a nuclear weapon, he says the U.S. and other agencies have little oversight of those next steps.

“The reality is that we have no visibility over the weaponization part of this,” he said.