Could the Fall of Assad and the Return of Trump Lead to a Better Deal with Iran?

War on the Rocks-Jan 16th2025

Assaf Zoran

Iran’s inability to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime and prevent its collapse, coupled with recent significant blows to Hizballah and Israeli strikes within Iranian borders, underscores Tehran’s unprecedented regional weakness.

With Russian support proving unreliable, the rapid Syrian downfall reminds Iranian leadership of the danger of their growing domestic estrangement. Now, Tehran faces a critical choice between dangerously advancing its military nuclear ambitions as the ultimate deterrent or seeking de-escalation at the risk of seeming vulnerable.

As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, a unique opportunity to influence Iran’s direction arises by renewing the combination of effective pressure and robust negotiations, mainly aimed at a permanent detailed weaponization ban, while providing Tehran with possible domestic benefits. At the same time, the military “Plan B” against Iran’s nuclear program that was recently debated by the Biden administration should remain at hand — operationally and politically — in case diplomacy fails.

Iran’s Chain of Failures

In recent months, the Iranian regime has faced a series of setbacks that have severely undermined its regional prestige, bringing it to a record low. These include the decimation of most of Hamas’ military wing in Gaza, the substantial weakening of Hizballah’s leadership and its offensive capabilities in Lebanon, the first extensive Israeli military strike deep within Iran (a move unprecedented since the war between Iran and Iraq), and the collapse of Assad’s regime despite Tehran’s prolonged efforts to stabilize its Syrian ally. Collectively, these events highlight the vulnerabilities of the Iranian regime and portray it in a negative light.

Iran’s strategy, aimed at cultivating peer forces to encircle its adversaries with security challenges, has largely failed. The control over a crucial corridor stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon was disrupted, the cohesion of the “axis of resistance” has weakened, and instead of shielding its territory through proxies, Iran found itself engaged in direct confrontations with Israel. These exchanges severely compromised Iran’s air defense systems, increasing its vulnerabilities. Furthermore, despite two notable demonstrations of Iranian missile power in the past year, these efforts have yet proven insufficient to prevent further Israeli strikes.

The failure of the axis of resistance and the missile project to protect Iran’s national security has positioned its nuclear program as the principal potential deterrent against adversaries. However, despite significant advancements in recent years, the nuclear component, in its present state, appears to remain insufficient in warding off external threats.

Are Nuclear Weapons a Solution for Tehran?

Iran now stands at a critical juncture. Should the Iranian leader, heeding advice from prominent figures within its political sphere and drawing lessons from the experiences of North Korea, Libya, and Ukraine, opt to pursue nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent? Assad’s failed reliance on Russian aid could embolden regime insiders who advocate for such strategic autonomy. But this strategy, while aimed at securing the regime’s survival, risks legitimizing significant foreign attacks on Iranian soil. Alternatively, should the Iranian leader favor de-escalation to reduce confrontation risks and maximize economic gains, albeit at the potential cost of eroding Iran’s resilient image? This dilemma might underlie the Iranian foreign minister’s statement that “2025 will be an important year regarding Iran’s nuclear issue.”

Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei, showcasing more risk-prone behavior in recent years, is nearing a decision regarding this strategic issue, as numerous internal challenges are at stake: a widening rift between the regime and the public, severe economic difficulties, and increased focus on succession. The disintegration of Assad’s regime provides the Iranian leadership a stark reminder and a possible foreshadowing of Tehran’s fate if these issues remain unresolved.

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