Detecting and Halting an Iranian Weaponization Effort

FDD-Feb19th2025

By Andrea Stricker

Executive Summary

A secret team of Iranian scientists is working to shorten the country’s route to nuclear weapons, according to current and former U.S. officials. This intelligence was collected during President Joe Biden’s final months in office, then relayed to the incoming national security team under President Donald Trump.¹

Despite the Islamic Republic’s search for a shortcut to the bomb, Trump’s second term as president presents a historic chance to reverse the Biden administration’s failed Iran policies and prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Indeed, Trump has repeatedly declared since taking office that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.² To make that goal a reality, he should immediately muster the full weight of the U.S. national security establishment to confront this urgent threat. In particular, now that Iran has a team working to speed its path to the bomb and has produced enough highly enriched uranium for multiple nuclear weapons, the new administration must focus on detecting and stopping additional secret moves by Tehran to advance its weaponization program — i.e., the key scientific and engineering work that could enable the production of a functioning nuclear device, integrating a uranium fissile core, a triggering mechanism, and explosives.³

During his four years as president, Biden allowed Tehran’s nuclear program to progress largely unimpeded. Today, Iran likely has the capability and know-how to produce nuclear weapons but lacks confidence in the functionality of certain components and therefore the device as a whole. However, according to nuclear expert David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, Iran probably knows how to resolve these issues and, in a rush, may be able to detonate a crude nuclear device within six months of starting.⁴

An advancing Iranian weaponization capability, matched with Tehran’s enrichment of uranium to near-weapons grade, limits the window of time in which the United States and its allies could intervene to stop an Iranian dash to nuclear weapons, known as a breakout. The regime may be able to move existing enriched uranium stockpiles to secret, highly fortified underground facilities, further enrich that fuel to weapons grade, and finalize construction of nuclear devices before the West could take effective action.⁵ Thus, if the United States and its allies fail to stop Tehran’s weaponization efforts before a breakout begins, they could be relatively surprised when Iran successfully constructs atomic devices and conducts a demonstration test.

The Trump administration has already broken with Biden’s ineffective policy with its February 2025 presidential memorandum reimposing the “maximum pressure” policy and sanctions against Iran that were in place during Trump’s first term. There is ample justification for this pressure, yet it may also provide the clerical regime with an additional incentive to seek nuclear weapons to secure its hold on power.⁶ It could also sprint for the bomb to bolster its offensive and defensive capabilities to deter further Israeli strikes against the regime itself following Israel’s damaging military operations against Iran’s most potent proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, and Tehran’s loss of its military assets in Syria.