Diplomats fear growing power of Iranian factions that want nuclear weapons

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi attends the IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna on Monday. PHOTO: LISA LEUTNER/REUTERS

Diplomats fear growing power of Iranian factions that want nuclear weapons

The Guardian-March10th2024

By Patrick Wintour

There are growing fears among diplomats in the US and Europe that Iran’s largely unmonitored nuclear program and the destabilization caused by the Gaza conflict are strengthening the hand of Iranian factions that back the development of nuclear weapons.

The Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, has reiterated in recent days that his country is pursuing a civilian nuclear program for now.

However, at a quarterly meeting last week of the governing board of the nuclear inspectorate, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the US and its European partners issued dire warnings about the threat posed by Iran’s lack of cooperation on its nuclear programme.

The IAEA director, Rafael Grossi, even admitted that that the inspectorate had lost “continuity of knowledge about the production and stock of centrifuges, rotors, heavy water and uranium ore concentrate” in Iran.

Russia’s envoy to the IAEA, Mikhail Ulyanov, also warned that the situation was “full of danger and risks getting out of control”, though he placed the blame largely on the US walkout from the 2015 nuclear deal.

The warnings came after the success of hardliners opposed to the 2015 deal constraining Iran’s nuclear programme in last weekend’s parliamentary elections. The elections were highly managed and in Tehran especially were marked by a very low turnout, but the parliament can nevertheless help frame domestic political debate.

The sense of urgency has increased not just because Iran is enriching uranium at such a high level – very close to the 90% regarded as weapons grade – but also because in recent months senior Iranian figures have questioned Tehran’s commitment to a solely civilian nuclear programme.

The regional geopolitical context, including fears of the Gaza conflict metastasising into a wider Iran-Israel war, is also a factor, as is the knowledge that the 2015 nuclear deal expires in October next year, during a possible Donald Trump presidency, leading to the nuclear issue being removed from the UN security council agenda.

Kasra Aarabi, the director of IRGC research at United against Nuclear Iran, said: “The Biden administration’s refusal to impose direct consequences on Iran – despite its consistent acts of aggression since October 7, including an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps proxy attack that killed three US soldiers in Syria – has emboldened the Iranian regime and made supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRGC believe the regime can escalate without facing any repercussions.”