Exiting the unfinished Ukrainian deadlock

By: Ata Hoodashtian- 3/3/2025

Trump’s proximity to Russia has raised concerns in both Ukraine and Western Europe. The latest statement from the European Commission President is clear: Europe must arm itself. This echoes Macron’s 2018 declaration that Europe needs its own independent army.

1)      Therefore, the impending conflict in Ukraine and America’s new positions will serve as a lever for Europe’s renewed military and economic independence.

2)      In broader terms, this major shift sets the stage for improving Europe’s proximity to China and potentially achieving global power equilibrium. However, Europe’s alignment with China is not ideological but rather commercial and perhaps, one day, military.

The Isolation of the United States

Trump’s strategy assumes that a peace deal in Ukraine would draw Russia closer, potentially creating a rift between Russia and China, weakening the latter. This was Nixon’s gambit: during his era, the US engaged with China to create divisions among communist countries, pushing Russia away. Yet, such a plan today will likely yield indefensible consequences. Proximity to Russia would isolate America and push Europe towards China, granting the latter added influence.

3) Ultimately, Trump’s America versus Europe’s integrated empowerment and encouragement of China’s presence on the global stage profoundly jeopardizes world peace.

The time has come for both Europe and Canada to act independently of the United States. The Cold War mentality still grips Europe. If Europe enters the field with strength, establishing a comprehensive unified action with a robust military structure (though time-consuming), and even reaches some level of understanding with China, it sends alarming signals to both Trump’s America and Russia, possibly urging them to reconsider jeopardizing the world. Only a third power can pacify these careless forces.

A Multinational European Army

In practice, Europe faces significant obstacles in establishing a powerful multinational military force. The United States and Russia will undoubtedly attempt to create divisions among European states to prevent such an initiative from materializing. However, historically, Western European nations have demonstrated greater political and strategic cohesion.

Therefore, the first step in creating a European multinational army should be its foundation in a core group of Western European states, rather than Eastern European nations. This would likely include the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, followed by Italy and, progressively, other nations committed to the European project.

Moreover, if the United States were to withdraw from NATO, the remaining member states—excluding some exceptions, such as Turkey—would likely integrate into the new European military structure, transforming it into a powerful and influential force. In this scenario, Northern European nations would face fewer challenges in joining this new military alliance.

Considerations for Breaking the Deadlock

However, achieving peace in parallel with these developments requires a series of strategic compromises:

1. Ukraine must renounce its aspiration to join NATO. This is the most crucial step toward initiating meaningful negotiations to end the war.
2. Ukraine must reach an agreement with the United States regarding its underground resources, a scenario that appears increasingly likely.
3. The United States, in turn, must guarantee Ukraine’s security.
4. Russia would retain the occupied territories in Ukraine. While this is a contentious proposition, ending the war and preventing its expansion into other countries requires bold initiatives. Ultimately, it appears that this may be the only viable path for Russia’s withdrawal from further conflict.

However, such an agreement would require several key guarantees:

• First, Russia must pledge not to launch further military aggression against Ukraine or any other European country.
• Second, to ensure peace, Russia must accept that the United States and European nations will act as guarantors of Ukraine’s security.

This could involve the deployment of Western (US and European) ground troops in Ukraine or the implementation of another security mechanism, which would require further deliberation by experts in the field.

Ata Hoodashtian, is a PhD. Professor of Political Science, based in Toronto. His last book: Modern Political Leadership, Baran, Stokholm, 2022.