Five Signs of Growing Risk of US War With Iran

NEWSWEEK -May9th2025

The relationship between the United States and Iran has become increasingly volatile in recent weeks, marked by a series of military provocations, stalled nuclear talks, and shifting diplomatic dynamics.

Both nations continue to face off over issues ranging from Iran’s nuclear ambitions to its expanding military capabilities and influence in the Middle East. While both sides have expressed a desire to avoid full-scale war, several developments suggest the risk of direct conflict is rising.

Newsweek has reached out to the State Department and Iran’s foreign ministry for comment.

Why it Matters

The growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are largely due to the strain on nuclear negotiations, escalating military developments, and proxy conflicts. As both nations brace for potential confrontation, Iran’s military advancements are seen as significant steps in its strategy to counter U.S. influence. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions have shown little sign of progress, with the latest round of talks between Washington and Tehran expected in the coming days. Deadlock increases the likelihood that both sides could turn to military action as a means to resolve their disagreements.

What To Know

The U.S., under President Donald Trump, has taken a hardline “maximum pressure” approach toward Iran, while Iran’s leadership has consistently stated its readiness to defend the country against any military aggression. Tensions have also been exacerbated by Iranian-backed attacks on U.S. allies and military assets in the region.

Here are five signs that the risk of conflict is increasing:

1. U.S. Deployments

The U.S. has significantly bolstered its military presence in the region in a clear signal of growing concern over Iran’s regional ambitions. In May 2025, four B-52 bombers were deployed to Diego Garcia, a U.S. base in the Indian Ocean roughly 2,000 miles (3,218 kilometers) from Iran. The base also houses six B-2 Spirit stealth bombers as part of an ongoing Bomber Task Force mission. Meanwhile, two aircraft carriers—the USS Harry S. Truman and the USS Carl Vinson—have been operating in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea, respectively. These deployments underscore Washington’s increased state of readiness and serve as a forceful message of deterrence aimed at Tehran.

2. Iran’s Military Advancements

Iran, in turn, has responded with notable enhancements to its own military posture, particularly in asymmetric warfare capabilities. As U.S. forces expand their footprint, Iran recently unveiled an underground drone base. This facility, built to house reconnaissance drones such as the Mohajer-6, enables Iran to monitor U.S. naval movements in the Persian Gulf. The base’s fortified, subterranean design signals Tehran’s intent to survive potential airstrikes and prepare for sustained conflict.

At the same time, Iran has introduced the Qassem Basir missile, a medium-range ballistic system with a 750 mile (1,200 kilometer) reach. Engineered to evade interception by U.S. defenses such as THAAD, the missile presents a direct challenge to Western military dominance and poses a potential threat to regional allies like Israel.

3. The Israel Factor

Israel’s role in the confrontation is growing increasingly pronounced. Long wary of Iran’s expanding military reach, Israel has signaled its readiness to act unilaterally if needed. The recent explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port has fueled suspicions of Israeli involvement, reinforcing concerns about covert operations — although Iranian authorities said it was due to negligence. In a pointed warning, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated, “Whoever harms us – we will strike back sevenfold,” directly linking Iran to proxy attacks and vowing full retaliation. Katz also emphasized Israel’s right to act independently: “Israel must be able to defend itself on its own against any threat and any enemy.”