Give in or escalate? What to expect as Trump warns Iran

DW-March18th2025

Tensions between the US and Iran are on the rise, with Washington saying Tehran will face consequences if it keeps supporting its regional proxies and continues its nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump on Monday called on Iran to stop supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen, saying — in no uncertain terms — that he would hold Tehran responsible for any attacks carried out by them.

The Houthis are an Iran-backed Shiite Muslim militia that has been fighting a civil war in Yemen since 2014. The group controls large swaths of the conflict-ridden country, including the capital Sanaa.

“Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Iran has long denied having influence on the Houthi rebels.

Response to Houthi attacks on trade ships

But experts say there is a link between Tehran and the Shiite militia.

“Alongside pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, the Houthi rebels are one of Iran’s last active proxy groups in the region,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

“Based on the talks in Iran that I am following, it seems some decision makers in Tehran want the Houthis to react to any US attack with a firm response and not show weakness,” she said, adding: “In their eyes, Tehran would lose its strategic counterweight against the US in the event of a military defeat of the Houthis. And the next stop could be a direct attack on Iran.”

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