Hoping to Avert Nuclear Crisis, U.S. Seeks Informal Agreement With Iran

New York Times- June 14th,2023

By Michael Crowley, Farnaz Fassihi and Ronen Bergman

Michael Crowley reported from Washington, Farnaz Fassihi from New York and Ronen Bergman from Tel Aviv.

The Biden administration has been negotiating quietly with Iran to limit Tehran’s nuclear program and free imprisoned Americans, according to officials from three countries, in part of a larger U.S. Effort to ease tensions and reduce the risk of a military confrontation with the Islamic Republic.

The U.S. Goal is to reach an informal, unwritten agreement, which some Iranian officials are calling a “political cease-fire.” It would aim to prevent a further escalation in a long-hostile relationship that has grown even more fraught as Iran builds up a stockpile of highly enriched uranium close to bomb-grade purity, supplies Russia with drones for use in Ukraine and brutally cracks down on domestic political protests.

The broad outlines of the talks were confirmed by three senior Israeli officials, an Iranian official and a U.S. Official. American officials would not discuss efforts to win the release of prisoners in detail, beyond calling that an urgent U.S. Priority.

The indirect talks, some occurring this spring in the Gulf Arab state of Oman, reflect a resumption of diplomacy between the United States and Iran after the collapse of more than a year of negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. That agreement sharply limited Iran’s activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

Iran accelerated its nuclear program months after President Donald J. Trump withdrew from the deal and imposed a slew of new sanctions on the country in 2018.

Iran would agree under a new pact — which two Israeli officials called “imminent” — not to enrich uranium beyond its current production level of 60 percent purity. That is close to but short of the 90 percent purity needed to fashion a nuclear weapon, a level that the United States has warned would force a severe response.

Iran would also halt lethal attacks on American contractors in Syria and Iraq by its proxies in the region, expand its cooperation with international nuclear inspectors, and refrain from selling ballistic missiles to Russia, Iranian officials said.

In return, Iran would expect the United States to avoid tightening sanctions already choking its economy; to not seize oil-bearing foreign tankers, as it most recently did in April; and to not seek new punitive resolutions at the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran for its nuclear activity.

“None of this is aimed at reaching a groundbreaking agreement,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director for the International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention organization. Instead, he said, the goal is to “put a lid on any activity that basically crosses a red line or puts either party in a position to retaliate in a way that destabilizes the status quo.”

“The objective is to stabilize the tensions, to create time and space to discuss the future diplomacy and the nuclear deal,” Mr. Vaez said.

Iran also expects the United States to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian assets, whose use would be limited to humanitarian purposes, in exchange for the release of three Iranian American prisoners whom the U.S. calls wrongfully detained. U.S. officials have not confirmed such a linkage between the prisoners and the money, nor any connection between prisoners and nuclear matters.

In what could be a sign of a developing agreement, the United States issued a waiver last week allowing Iraq to pay $2.76 billion in energy debts to Iran. The money would be restricted to use by U.S.-approved third-party vendors for food and medicine for Iranian citizens, according to the State Department.

That could allay concerns that the Biden administration is placing billions into the hands of a ruthless authoritarian regime that is killing protesters, supporting Russia’s Ukraine war effort, and funding anti-Israeli proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. Republicans hammered the Obama administration for releasing billions in frozen Iranian cash, which they said enabled the subsidy of terrorist activities.

Iranian officials are also trying to claim an estimated $7 billion worth of oil purchase payments held in South Korea that they have linked to the release of American prisoners. That money, too, would be restricted for humanitarian use, and held in a Qatari bank, according to an Iranian official and several other people familiar with the negotiations.