Iran endangering U.S. and western interests

by: Dr. Fariborz Saremi,

Iran and Russia have sought to offset their deepening international isolation by stepping up their bilateral cooperation on military, foreign policy, and economic fronts. The two states, led by anti-western authoritarian regimes, share a common adversary: the United States and its NATO allies. Burgeoning Russo-Iranian ties are deeply troubling and if unchecked, will have wide-ranging negative repercussions for the United States, its allies, and particularly its allies in Europe, Eurasia, and the Middle East, as well as on international stability and security more widely.

The Biden administration has sought to reach another flawed nuclear deal with Iran and punish Russia for its war of aggression in Ukraine, but the growing alliance between the two states had made both goals more difficult to attain. Instead of devising discrete policies for each hostile Regime, Washington should develop an overarching framework for undermining the power of both penalizing dangerous cooperation between Russia and Iran and stressing their mutual ties.

The U.S. also has vital national interests that are threatened by Iran, which soon could emerge as a nuclear power. If the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism acquires nuclear weapons, it could immediately destabilize the oil-rich Persian Gulf, endanger the existence of the state of Israel and disrupt the global economy, exacerbate regional threats to the United Sates and its allies, encourage further regional nuclear proliferation, and eventually threaten a nuclear strike on the U.S. Homeland.

The United States must take immediate action to counter and roll back the intensifying Russian-Iranian alliance by ending efforts to revive the obsolete and risky 2015 nuclear agreement, returning to Maximum pressure and the Maximum support of the people of Iran, tightening economic sanctions on Iran and Russia, bolstering deterrence, especially missile and drone defenses against Iranian threats, and increasing U.S. Energy exports to help reduce the oil and gas revenue for both regimes.

Iran and Russia have steadily tightened ties in recent years, despite a long history of mutual suspicion fueled by multiple war against one another in the distant past. Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine  their bilateral relations have blossomed into a strategic partnership in which defense and military cooperation have expanded to alarming dimensions.

Iran also deployed IRGC military trainers to Russian- occupied Crimea to train and advise Russian military forces on the use of Iranian- built drones. In early February 2023, it was reported that the two countries will build a factory in Russia that will be capable of manufacturing thousands of Iranian – designed drones.

The economies of both Russia and Iran depend heavily on energy exports. Moscow and Tehran have cooperated closely on oil and nuclear issues. Both countries have sought to extract high prices for their oil exports to increase revenues by coordinating their positions within the OPEC Plus group. Russia also built Iran’s sole nuclear power plant at Bushehr ,and with Russian help, Iran plans to build at least two more for roughly $ 10 billion.

The Biden administration has been slow to grasp the significance of the blossoming alliance between Iran and Russia. Intent on reviving the flawed 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the White House ended the Maximum Pressure strategy adopted by Trump administration and offered sanctions relief, while allowing sanctions to atrophy. Additionally, the Biden administration has failed to adequately deter Iranian aggression. Despite roughly 80 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria launched by Iranian proxy groups since 2021.

Israeli drones reportedly attacked on Iranian military factory in Isfahan on January 28, 2023 that produces advanced missile-armed drones with air-to-ground strike capabilities, which are coveted by the Russian military for use in Ukraine. Washington should provide intelligence and diplomatic support for Israel’s efforts to disrupt Iran’s drone production by vetoing any negative actions by the U.N. Security Council. Fewer Iranian drones produced means fewer drones for Russia, too.

Considering their regional and global geopolitical ambitions, the deepening strategic partnership between Iran and Russia poses a rising threat to the U.S., its allies and partners in Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East. Failing to quickly address these troubling ties- and the multiple threats that arise from them- will only lead to more international stability including in the war in Ukraine.

Dr. Fariborz Saremi is a German/Iranian strategic analyst based in Hamburg. Dr. Saremi is a member of the Hamburg branch of the foreign and security policy committee of the German CDU Party and the Coordinator of the Iranian National Unity Movement in Germany.