Iran: How Raisi was convinced to reject Rouhani’s nuclear deal

Middle East Eye-April 23rd,2023

During the 2021 transition period, an agreement was close to being signed, but people close to the new president were reluctant to put ink to paper

An opportunity to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was on the table soon after President Ebrahim Raisi took office, but despite his initial openness, people close to him scuppered chances of it being signed, two sources close to the negotiations told Middle East Eye.

Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 US presidential elections seemed set to return Washington to the nuclear deal, which was signed alongside other world powers to limit Iran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the pact, known as the JCPOA, in 2018 and imposed a brutal sanctions regime on Tehran.

When Biden took office in 2021, talks between Iran and the US through official channels began.

A source with direct knowledge of the talks told MEE that in August that year, following several rounds of negotiations in Vienna, the two sides had arrived at a draft agreement that was “ready to be signed”.

Raisi, a former chief justice belonging to the principlist camp, was elected to the presidency that June. He and other principlists, also known as hardliners, had previously been very critical of the JCPOA. But with Iran’s economy in tatters, there was nonetheless an expectation that a deal should be reached.

According to the source, in the transition period between Raisi and Hassan Rouhani’s presidencies, a deal was available and close to being signed.

“Rouhani’s diplomatic team had offered to allow their negotiators to travel to Vienna to sign the agreement,” the source said.

The outgoing government, the source said, offered to get the deal done and take any political flack that came with it, telling Raisi’s new administration that “the country and your government could reap the economic benefits of the JCPOA”.

Rouhani’s team appeared to believe it would be difficult for Raisi and his people to sign a deal with the Americans over fears of a backlash among their support base.

Principlists have always been critical of the JCPOA, accusing Rouhani of selling the country’s nuclear capabilities in return for very little.

Iran officials hold secret talks with West without Raisi’s knowledge

“Raisi initially accepted this offer and told them to finish the job in two or three meetings, but he later changed his mind,” the source recalled.

Ali Bagheri Kani and Ali Hossein Taash, who are currently the chief nuclear negotiator and a senior figure in the Revolutionary Guard respectively, were unconvinced.

“Ali Bagheri and Ali Hossein Taash both talked Raisi into rejecting this idea as they became aware of the proposal,” said the source.

Bagheri and Hossein Taash were both contenders for leading the foreign ministry and held significant sway within Raisi’s close-knit circle.