Iran Plans to Attack Israel in the Coming Hours, U.S. and Israel Say

New York Times-Oct 1st2024

U.S. and Israeli officials say that Iran is expected to launch an attack on Israel in the coming hours, after Israeli forces launched a rare ground invasion of southern Lebanon on Monday night aimed at crippling the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah there.

The Israeli military said on Tuesday that the United States had informed Israel about preparations for the attack, which could spark a sharp escalation in the long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran and tip the region further into turmoil and a widening war. Iran backs Hezbollah and Hamas, the two militias currently fighting Israel, as well as the Houthis in Yemen.

A senior White House official said the United States was “actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack,” warning that a direct attack against Israel “will carry severe consequences for Iran.”

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military intelligence, said the Iranian attack could involve a combination of unmanned drones and missiles. The U.S. Embassy in Israel sent employees home and told them to be prepared to enter bomb shelters, the first such order in months.

Iran last attacked Israel in April, but Israel, with help from the United States, Jordan and others, intercepted almost all of the hundreds of missiles and drones fired at its territory. With the United States urging restraint, Israel’s response was muted; it fired at an air base near some of Iran’s nuclear facilities, but did not hit the facilities themselves.

There was no official comment from Iran. But in a sign of the gravity of the moment, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will lead the Friday prayer in Tehran this week — a task he only undertakes in extraordinary circumstances — and deliver a sermon that is expected to set the tone for Iran’s strategy against Israel, state media reported on Tuesday.

The Iranian director for the International Crisis Group, Ali Vaez, said that in Iran, the consensus had moved toward responding “in order to kill the momentum that Israel has been able to gain for the past few days.” But a response is risky for Iran, he noted, because it would give Israel justification for striking back.

Earlier, the Israeli military sharply tightened restrictions on gatherings in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv on Tuesday, a sign that it was bracing for further reprisals from Hezbollah or Iran.

Here is what else to know:

Lebanon: The warning of a possible Iranian attack arrived hours after the Israeli military confirmed that its forces had crossed into Lebanon in an operation aimed at Hezbollah targets in the rugged border region. It said that one army division — which typically numbers more than 10,000 soldiers — was involved in conducting “limited, localized and targeted raids” along the border, although it was unclear how many of those troops were inside Lebanon. On Tuesday, the Israeli military said it was calling up four more reserve brigades “for operational missions in the northern arena.”
Chaos in Beirut: The Israeli military on Tuesday said it was once again conducting strikes in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital. Lebanon’s state-run news agency reported two separate strikes on buildings close to the main road leading to Beirut’s airport. Smoke could be seen rising above the city’s skyline following the attack and ambulances were heard rushing to the scene.
Months of escalation: For weeks, Israeli attacks in Lebanon have been escalating, including intense airstrikes and the killing of top leaders of Hezbollah. Over the past year, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel in solidarity with Hamas, the Gaza-based armed group also backed by Iran.
Hezbollah missiles: Hezbollah continued its strikes on Israel, saying on Tuesday that it had fired missiles at the Glilot base on the outskirts of Tel Aviv, which is home to the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency. Sirens sounded in central Israel, including in the Tel Aviv area.
Past invasions: Israel last fought on the ground in Lebanon in 2006, during a 34-day war with Hezbollah that killed more than 1,000 Lebanese, over 100 Israeli soldiers and dozens of Israeli civilians. In three major invasions since 1978, Israel has aimed to secure its northern border and stop militants from launching attacks. Each campaign achieved less decisive results than Israel’s military planners and political leaders anticipated.
U.S. troops: The Pentagon said on Monday that United States was sending a few thousand additional forces to the Middle East to bolster the 40,000 already in the region and to help defend Israel. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said he had spoken with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, on Monday, and agreed on the need to destroy Hezbollah “attack infrastructure” along the border, according to a Pentagon statement.