Iran will fall into Netanyahu’s trap if it hits Israel hard – but it can still avoid disaster

Guardian -Aug12th2024

On 31 July, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in what is believed to have been an Israeli operation. Haniyeh died in a facility in north Tehran, not long after he attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. How exactly Haniyeh was killed remains unclear. Israeli sources claim it was done using a bomb that had been smuggled into a bedroom in the facility ahead of Haniyeh’s visit. The bomb was then remotely detonated. Iranian sources insist that he was killed by a rocket fired into the building from a nearby hillside. Whatever the method, the assassination was yet another humiliating intelligence failure for Iran.

For the second time this year, the region is on the brink of a major war as Iran considers its response to a major Israeli provocation. In the view of Iranian analysts, such provocations are “traps” set by the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who wants to drag Iran into a wider war – especially as pressure mounts for a ceasefire in Gaza. Netanyahu, who is increasingly unpopular, is unlikely to remain prime minister in the aftermath of a ceasefire. For years, he has exaggerated the threat posed by Iran, and particularly its nuclear programme, to fuel his political ascendence. Now he is seeking war with Iran to avert his personal downfall.

Iran has avoided this trap once before. On 1 April, an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus killed several senior Iranian military commanders. Iran’s response to the attack, which came on 13 April, was unprecedented. A barrage of drones and ballistic missiles were launched from Iranian territory towards Israel. The US military helped coordinate Israel’s defence, which, combined with the telegraphed nature of the Iranian assault, served to limit its damage.

Iran’s calibrated response did not restore deterrence – Netanyahu remained sufficiently emboldened to target Haniyeh in Tehran just a few months later. But it did reveal the limits of the “ironclad” US security guarantee. The US was unwilling to support Israel’s counterstrike – President Biden promised a “diplomatic response” to Iran. When Israel did strike back on 19 April, it did so unilaterally, targeting a single military facility. A wider war had been averted.

But now, with Haniyeh dead, Iran is again being urged by its neighbours and western countries to exercise restraint. In recent days, the acting Iranian foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, has welcomed Jordan’s foreign minister in Tehran, attended a special meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Jeddah, and fielded phone calls from numerous diplomats, including the Swiss and Omani foreign ministers, who frequently share messages with Iran on behalf of the US.

The flurry of diplomacy may have delayed the Iranian response, but now Iran appears poised to retaliate. On Sunday the US defence secretary, Lloyd J Austin, told Yoav Gallant, his Israeli counterpart, that the US was moving a second carrier strike group into the region, along with a guided missile submarine.