Iran’s New Wave of Political Conservatives Is Here

Foreign Policy -March 7th2024

By Sina Toossi, a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy.

On March 1, Iran held elections for its parliament and the Assembly of Experts, the influential body responsible for overseeing and appointing the supreme leader. The Iranian public showed little interest—there was a historically low turnout of 41 percent, with only 25 million out of more than 61 million eligible voters participating—but Iran’s political landscape nevertheless experienced an important shift.

The elections, it’s important to note, were neither free nor fair. They were marked by the disqualification of many prominent figures by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for their loyalty to the Islamic Republic. Among those barred from running for the Assembly of Experts were moderate former President Hassan Rouhani and former Intelligence Ministry chief Mahmoud Alavi, both current members of the assembly. The main political organization of reformists and other critics of the system either did not participate or advocated for a

boycott. To the extent there was diversity in the elections, it was the product of new competition among Iran’s conservative factions.

There are no formal political parties in Iran, but influential movements, groups, and leaders publish lists of their preferred candidates. In Tehran, for example, the city’s 30 parliamentary seats—the most influential in the country—were contested by a collection of candidates appearing on lists from various conservative factions. (The lone moderate list—called the Voice of the Nation and led by Ali Motahari, a dissenting conservative voice—failed to secure any seats due to the low voter turnout and the relative obscurity of its candidates.)

The showdown between conservatives in the capital city saw the rise of some candidates who were newcomers to electoral politics and did not toe the mainstream conservative line. They challenged the establishment conservative list, known by the acronym SHANA, which was led by Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the speaker of the parliament and a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander with a long political career that includes running for president and serving as Tehran’s mayor.

The nonestablishment conservative lists were predominantly composed of hard-line figures. Unlike the reformists and moderate conservatives, who have shown some willingness to adapt and compromise on certain issues, they seek a rigid and purist version of Islamic law, reject any reforms that might threaten their power or ideology, and are more skeptical or opposed to engagement with Western powers. For instance, the hard-line winners in Tehran this election were fervent opponents of the 2015 nuclear deal, unlike the current speaker Ghalibaf, who was more supportive and pragmatic about the talks.

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https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/07/iran-election-parliament-assembly-experts-conservatives-hardliners/