Iraq militias step up Israel attacks as Iran looks to junior proxies
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Iraq militias step up Israel attacks as Iran looks to junior proxies
The Guardian-Oct17th2024
Jason Burke International security correspondent
Iran-linked militias in Iraq have launched about 40 attacks involving missiles, drones or rockets on Israel in the past two and a half weeks, the latest escalation in a largely clandestine proxy battle fought across a swath of the Middle East.
The attacks began in October last year when the war in Gaza started, but data compiled by the Washington Institute, a US-based thinktank, shows a sharp increase in their pace after Israel killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike on 27 September.
Hezbollah, which was founded with Iranian sponsorship in Lebanon more than 40 years ago, is the keystone of the loose coalition of militant groups created by Iran over recent decades.
With Hamas significantly weakened after a year of war in Gaza, and Hezbollah now reeling under a continuing Israeli air and ground offensive in Lebanon, Tehran has looked to more junior members of the rough coalition of factions it has supported across the Middle East to strike its arch-enemy.
“The number of missiles and drones being fired from Iraq [at Israel] has gone through the roof. They’ve moved into a higher gear to demonstrate their support for Hezbollah,” said Michael Knights, an analyst at the Washington Institute who follows the activities of militias based in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
The missile launches from Iraq underline Iran’s strategy of using members of its “axis of resistance” to support one another against Israel, as well as competition between the factions.
“The [militia in Iraq] are not as capable as Hezbollah and not as mad as the Houthis, so are kind of worried about being outshone by the other guys in the axis,” Knights said.
Analysts suggest Iran’s proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, from where the Houthi militia has fired missiles at Israel while also attacking shipping in the Red Sea, are all potential targets for Israel as policymakers there decide on retaliation to the 1 October launch by Iran of 180 ballistic missiles targeting Israel.
Israel has launched dozens of airstrikes and at least one major ground assault by commandos in Syria over the last year. Militant groups there backed by Iran also seek to expand and protect crucial supply routes that allow to Iran to send supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
When thousands of pagers issued by Hezbollah to members detonated last month in what is widely believed to be an Israeli sabotage operation, injuries were reported across Syria and in Yemen, as well as Lebanon. Some reports suggested up to 40 people were killed or injured in Yemen.
Kirsten Fontenrose, an expert at the Atlantic Council thinktank, described the pager explosions as a “momentary flash of light on a dark network map”.
“The spontaneous combustion of Hezbollah communications equipment is helping intelligence communities around the world map the relationships and reach of a US-designated terrorist organisation with global reach – across Lebanon into Syria and Yemen,” Fontenrose wrote.
In one Israeli operation last month, special forces mounted a raid on a reported weapons production installation linked to Iran in Masyaf, in western Syria close to the Lebanese border. The troops were reported to have attacked underground facilities, destroyed equipment and seized key documents and data.
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