Russia’s war in Ukraine jolts Iran, Syria and Middle East security
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Russia’s war in Ukraine jolts Iran, Syria and Middle East security
THE HILL- April 25th 2022
BY ERIC R. MANDEL, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR – 04/25/22 1:30 PM ET
Russia’s war in Ukraine has serious repercussions for the Middle East — affecting, in particular, Iranian entrenchment in Syria and regional security for Israel and the United States.
In 2015, Iran’s Qassem Soleimani, then general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, flew to Moscow to meet with Kremlin officials just weeks after the conclusion of the original Iran nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The goal was to change the course of Syria’s civil war, which looked bleak for their ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The meeting “forged a new Iranian-Russian alliance in support of Assad,” turning the course of the war in their favor. The successful outcome allowed Iran to move with confidence toward its primary objective: creating a vassal state in Syria, as it had in Lebanon with Hezbollah.
With Syria firmly in hand, Russia felt certain that its expanded air base in Khmeimim and its warm-water naval port in Tartus on the Mediterranean would become a permanent presence to establish Russian power in the vacuum left by U.S. withdrawal from the region. The most visible sign of U.S. disengagement came when President Obama outsourced its influence by deputizing Russia to destroy Assad’s chemical weapons. Talk about putting the wolf in charge of the hen house!
Then Russia became concerned that Iranian adventurism and entrenchment in Syria could endanger its prized military possessions by provoking Israel. So, Russia allowed Israel almost unfettered access to strike Iranian drone and missile bases in Syria, and enabled the transfer of precision-guided weapons to Hezbollah, which was now the de facto power in Lebanon and embedded in Syria.
That status quo held until now.
According to Asharq Al-Awsat, the Arabic newspaper headquartered in London, “With Russia preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, Tehran is carrying out the process of filling the vacuum left by Moscow in Syria.” Just as Russia filled the vacuum that the U.S. left in the Middle East, Iran is filling the void that Russia is leaving by withdrawing from Syria. And this could portend a fundamental deterioration of regional stability.
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