There are growing indications that both Iran and the United States have taken steps to dial back tensions in recent weeks and months, though the de-escalation remains tentative and could easily collapse.

Western officials and regional analysts point to Iran’s slightly slower pace of uranium enrichment work, a decline in attacks by Iranian-backed groups on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, an increase in Iran’s oil exports and a prisoner exchange agreement that appears close to completion as signs of a step back from confrontation.

“There does appear to be some limited, tentative de-escalation, but there are many ways this could all go sideways, and it’s not clear where this will ultimately lead even if it holds,” said Eric Brewer, deputy vice president at Nuclear Threat Initiative, a think tank, and a former U.S. intelligence official who worked on nuclear nonproliferation.

The relative thaw, however limited and fragile, appears to be the result of an understanding between the two governments designed to avoid a crisis in the coming months, while keeping the door open to possible negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, two sources familiar with the matter said. For the White House, such an arrangement buys time and averts a potential confrontation during the 2024 presidential election campaign. For Tehran, it offers a respite from more sweeping sanctions and a chance to concentrate on its domestic troubles, experts and former U.S. officials said.

U.S. officials have repeatedly insisted that there is no “deal” between the two governments. Any formal agreement would trigger a U.S. law that requires Congress to approve any new accord with Iran. NBC News and other media previously reported on indirect talks aimed at avoiding a potential conflict.

One sign of the lowered temperature between the two adversaries is a drop-off in attacks on U.S. forces by Iranian-backed militia in Iraq and Syria, which had prompted the Biden administration to carry out airstrikes in the past.

“They have slowed down a lot,” said Michael Knights, an analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who closely tracks the Iranian-backed militias. “They’re not directly confronting us very often these days.”

Maj. Gen. Matthew McFarlane, who at the time was overseeing U.S.-led forces in Iraq and Syria, told reporters last month that there had been no attacks by Iranian-backed militias on U.S. bases in Syria for 110 days and no attack on coalition bases in Iraq for 14 months.

On Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran has chosen to slightly decelerate its enrichment work, though its stockpile of nuclear fissile material continues to expand.

According to two sources familiar with a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has slowed down the rate at which it is enriching uranium to 60% purity, only a step away from the 90% grade needed to build nuclear weapons. The move serves as a political signal but does not represent any progress toward limiting Iran’s potential for building an atomic bomb, Brewer and others said.

Iran now has enough near-weapons-grade uranium to build roughly three nuclear weapons, and a stockpile of uranium enriched at 20% to develop even more, experts said.