The U.S. is demanding Iran rein in its proxy groups. Is that actually possible?

NPR-Feb 7th2024

Kathryn Fox

When the U.S. launched airstrikes over the past week in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, the idea was to send a message to another country: Iran.

And the message, per the White House, is: rein in your proxy groups — groups that Iran funds, arms or otherwise supports.

This prompts questions: is it clear Iran can do that? How much control does Iran have over the so-called “Axis of Resistance”?

Norman Roule — a 34-year veteran of the CIA, and a former mission manager for Iran for the Director of National Intelligence — speaks to All Things Considered host Mary Louise Kelly about these pressing questions.

Roule says Iran isn’t actually seeking to control the proxy groups, and it’s not reasonable to expect that U.S. strikes will accomplish the goal of getting Iran to rein them in.

This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Interview highlights

Mary Louise Kelly: Understanding there is a range, understanding that the Houthis are not Hezbollah, etc., broadly speaking, how much control does Iran have over its proxies?

Norman Roule: Broadly speaking, Iran has sufficient control over its proxies to control or modulate their behavior because it controls their weaponry, their funding and it has significant political relationships with their key leaders.

Roule: Well, the evidence is significant, and it’s even open information. We have literally tons of weapons made in Iran captured from boats originating in Iran or weapons that have been fired against U.S. and partner forces with made-in-Tehran nomenclature.

These weapons are not available, for the most part, anywhere else in the world. They’re not available in an open market. Likewise, Iran’s leaders tout their support for all of the militias. There are frequent visits by militia leaders to visit Iran’s leaders, and they broadcast these meetings. And last, the militia leaders thank Iran for their support. I suppose I should also add that, periodically, there is evidence that an Iranian is present in various militia meetings.

elly: What about money trails? Is the CIA doing foreign asset tracking, that type of thing?

Roule: The U.S. intelligence community has a robust and generally successful capacity to follow money. But when Iran provides its cash in bags of money delivered via aircraft couriers, that’s obviously much more difficult to follow. What’s more easy to understand is when significant sanctions are placed on Iran, we are able to determine — and proxies complain publicly —that their budgets are reduced because of sanctions pressures on Iran.

MIDDLE EAST CRISIS — EXPLAINED

U.S. hits Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria in retaliation for deadly strikes

Kelly: Characterize what kind of control Iran has. Like, does Iran control what and where these groups would target?

Roule: Well, the control will vary by group and by actor, but I think it’s important to begin with an understanding that control is not what Iran seeks. Iran seeks the product of militia actions, not the process of controlling them. And Iran’s limited personnel that it applies to this target abroad means that it can’t be there day by day.

Your listeners may want to think of Iran as an arsonist that then subcontracts out to other arsonists it believes will be ideologically and energetically pursuing Iran’s goals. And then Iran empowers them with money, political support, weaponry, training and lets them do what they do because their success is Iran’s success.