U.S. warns Iraq: Don’t let Iran attack from your soil or Israel could retaliate

Axios-Nov5th2024

Barak Ravid

The Biden administration warned the Iraqi government that if it doesn’t prevent an Iranian attack from its soil, it could face an Israeli attack on its territory, two U.S. Officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The U.S. is trying to deter Iran from attacking Israel and is concerned that if it does strike Israel from Iraqi soil it would further escalate the regional war.

Driving the news: Israeli and U.S. intelligence indicates Iran is planning a significant attack against Israel from Iraqi soil in the coming days as a retaliation for Israel’s Oct. 25 strike in Iran, U.S. and Israeli officials said.

The officials said that since the Israeli attack, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have been moving drones and ballistic missiles to Shia militias in Iraq and have been planning a joint attack against Israel.
The U.S. warned Iran in public and in private against launching such an attack but so far the Iranians haven’t shown any willingness to de-escalate, a U.S. official said.

Behind the scenes: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke to Iraq’s prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Sunday about the planned Iranian attack from Iraq, one U.S. official said.

On Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to al-Sudani about the same issue.
Two U.S. officials said Sullivan and Blinken also pressed the Iraqi prime minister to stop Shia militia attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria and their attacks against Israel, which have been escalating in recent weeks.

Zoom in: Sullivan and Blinken also told al-Sudani he must not allow Iran to conduct an attack against Israel from Iraqi territory, the U.S. officials said.

“If you don’t, we won’t be able to stop Israel from striking Iraq,” a U.S. official quoted the Biden administration’s message to the Iraqi prime minister.
The White House and the State Department declined to comment. The Iraqi embassy in Washington, D.C., didn’t provide a comment.

The other side: The Iraqi prime minister and his advisers have made clear in private and in statements in the Iraqi press that they don’t want to see Iraq dragged into the Israel-Iran conflict.

The Lebanese al-Akhbar newspaper, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, on Tuesday quoated a senior official in one of the Shia militias in Iraq who said al-Sudani hasn’t succeeded so far to persuade the pro-Iranian armed factions in Iraq to stop its attacks against Israel.

“Al-Sudani has increased his efforts to press Israel not to implement its threats to strike Iraq, in return for not allowing Iran to use Iraqi soil to retaliate against Israel. The Iraqi government’s efforts are facing significant challenges, because there are factions that still say they will attack Israeli and U.S. interests,” al-Akhbar quoted the militia official as saying.

What they’re saying: State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement that Blinken told al-Sudani the Iraqi government must “fulfill its commitments to protect U.S. personnel and to pursue those responsible for attacks from Iraq on U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria, including from attacks by Iran-aligned militias.”

“The Secretary emphasized it is important that Iraq not be drawn into regional conflict and underscored the need for Iraq to exert control over armed groups launching unauthorized attacks from its territory,” Miller said.