US, Iran and Israel must tread carefully to avoid conflagration
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US, Iran and Israel must tread carefully to avoid conflagration
Gulf news -Dec !2,2021
While the 8th round of the Vienna nuclear talks have adjourned for now amid initial signs that progress has been made, the US, Iran and Israel must now tread carefully in the coming few days and weeks.
What happens in Iraq and Syria in relation to attacks on US bases by pro-Iranian militias must not get out of control if Washington and Tehran want to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. Also Israel must be careful not to find itself dragged into an inconclusive confrontation with Iran.
None of the three players is in a comfortable position right now. Iran, under a new leadership, is facing mounting internal dissent over a collapsing economy and acute water shortages. It knows that immediate relief can only come if US oil sanctions are lifted and that it can sell its oil in the open market without hindrance.
Time is not on its side even as its Foreign Ministry says that there is no time limit to reaching an agreement. Its demands could be met by the West but not without genuine concessions.
Other conditions, like receiving a guarantee that the US will not back down once more from the agreement, are impossible to meet. President Joe Biden cannot make that pledge and only if the US Congress ratifies the agreement, which it won’t, can such a pledge be made and only with caveats.
Iran understands that the post-Afghanistan US has a new take on the region as a whole. Perhaps that explains the movement by a number of key regional players to reset ties with former rivals. In the past few days Iran has asked regional countries to convene a conference to discuss the region’s conflicts.
The need to neutralise conflicts has never been greater and only to make sure that non-state actors are contained and that their actions do not lead to major conflagrations.
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