We Need Regime Change in Iran and Russia
Wall Street Journal-May8th2024
By Garry Kasparov
The $95 billion aid bill for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan finally passed after months of obstruction by the MAGA coalition in the House and a destructive blame game played by the White House. Amid the bill’s essential weapons and money for Ukraine, a critical detail shouldn’t be overlooked.
On page 32, a provision requires the Biden administration to present “a strategy regarding United States support for Ukraine against aggression by the Russian Federation” within 45 days of its enactment on April 24.
In supporting Ukraine, the U.S. and Europe have failed to establish the most basic element of strategic planning—a clearly defined goal.
Abraham Lincoln, a true strategist, began his 1858 “House Divided” speech: “If we could first know where we are, and whither we are tending, we could then better judge what to do, and how to do it.” Where are we today? We are at war, but one side doesn’t want to admit it. Whither are we tending? In an impossible two directions at once, yearning for a return to the status quo ante of profitable and corrupt dealings with Russia while giving Ukraine just enough support to prevent a Russian victory that would spark a crisis in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
European leaders like Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz act as if they are eager to get back to business as usual with Vladimir Putin’s mafia state. They provide defensive weapons to Ukraine but waver when it comes to arms that would help Ukraine strike back, creating a perpetual cycle of civilian deaths.
The Biden administration is still guided by Obama-era aides and failed Obama-era concepts of constraining American power and allies while indulging American enemies. Supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes” isn’t a goal. Supporting Israel while telling it not to root out Hamas terrorists isn’t a goal. Supporting Ukraine until it is whole and free is a goal. Promoting long-term peace in Europe and the Middle East by doing everything possible to accelerate the downfall of hostile regimes in Russia and Iran is a goal.
The aid bill also mentions seizing the hundreds of billions in Russian assets held abroad and using the money to defend and rebuild Ukraine. It’s a natural course of action, and the Renew Democracy Initiative, which confronts dictatorships and promotes liberty worldwide, has led the way in proving its validity and legality.
Russia’s response to this threat is instructive. Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that if the assets were seized, Russia would retaliate in court. Yes, a threat of litigation from an illegitimate dictatorship that is invading neighbors in Europe, forming partnerships with terrorists from Syria and Iran to Afghanistan, and carrying out election interference across the free world.
That this bluster is taken seriously proves that we in the West still don’t believe we are in a war. This delusion also prohibits the European Union and NATO from imposing sanctions on or expelling Mr. Putin’s partners in Hungary and Slovakia and from pursuing Western companies that still do business with Russia. Europe and NATO haven’t acted to halt the booming business of being a middleman in Russia’s trade, especially in China and Central Asia.
For years, the U.S. has pointed to the size and strength of its military, how easily and decisively it could respond to any threat. But deterrence works only when military might is matched by reputation. If your enemies believe you will use overwhelming force, it forestalls the need to use that force. When a red line is crossed, there is no choice but to respond. Otherwise, credibility disintegrates and violence becomes more likely.
In 2012 President Obama told Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad that using chemical weapons in Syria would be a “red line.” Mr. Assad did, and he is still there, slaughtering people with impunity. Mr. Biden told Iran it couldn’t strike Israel from its own territory. It did.
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