What Iran’s Elections Mean for Biden and Khamenei

Newsweek -June 11th2024

The hasty race to elect Iran’s next political leader following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi last month has entered a decisive campaigning phase with the potential to significantly shape the nation’s domestic and foreign policies at a crucial period.

Most of the six candidates approved out of more than 80 initial hopefuls reflect the nation’s consolidation of power in the hands of conservative religious and military circles under the ultimate authority of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and an increasingly influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

But how the race plays out could indicate power shifts taking place at the heart of the Islamic Republic.

While, unlike Raisi’s widely foreseen 2021 win, there is no clear front-runner for this year’s election, two men have emerged as the strongest candidates in the eyes of many observers. They are Saeed Jalili, a member of the Khamenei-appointed Expediency Discernment Council and the supreme leader’s representative to the Supreme National Security Council, and Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, a well-known former IRGC commander who serves as speaker of the nation’s parliament, the Islamic Consultative Assembly.

The IRGC answers directly to Khamenei, but at a time when the elite military institution has spread its influence beyond the realm of defense into other decision-making circles and an aging Khamenei has no clearly defined successor, the outcome of the vote may be telling of the future of the nation’s leadership.

“The IRGC is likely to win regardless of who is elected president,” Ali Alfouneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Newsweek. “But since everyone perceives Jalili as Khamenei’s favorite, every vote for Qalibaf is a vote against Khamenei, and a Qalibaf victory will be interpreted as Khamenei’s defeat.”

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