What is stopping Israel from bombing Iran’s nuclear sites?

What is stopping Israel from bombing Iran’s nuclear sites?

Middle East Eye-June6th2025

Israel has been threatening a preemptive military strike on Iran as the Trump administration tries to negotiate a nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic.

But current and former US and Israeli officials say the Israeli bluff is becoming stale and that Trump has effectively boxed Netanyahu into towing his line as talks continue.

On one hand, current and former US officials say there is little the US can do to prevent Israel from unilaterally bombing Iran if it chooses to do so.

Unlike other American partners, Israel is less dependent on American intelligence for such an operation, especially in Iran, where it has operated for decades, assassinating scientists and senior officials.

One senior US official, speaking to Middle East Eye on the condition of anonymity, said that the Trump administration has been impressed by plans Israel shared with it that lay out unilateral strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme without American direct involvement.

The plans were discussed in April and May with CIA director John Ratcliffe.

“The Israelis have pinpointed everything they can take out that supports Iran’s nuclear sites down to the water supply and power generation, etc,” the US official told MEE, referring to a process called Target Systems Analysis, by which militaries assess specific nodes to attack, which support a bigger main target.

Israel has also discussed combining cyberattacks and precision military strikes.

“Can Israel go it alone? Yes, course,” Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, told MEE.

“They definitely can disrupt large parts of the programme without destroying all of it. They have demonstrated that by rehearsing similar contingencies. You can also get some clues from the tit-for-tat with Iran last year when they (Israel) took out air defence systems,” he added.

Israeli and US officials say that Israel took out many of Iran’s surface-to-air missiles and radars, like the Russian-made S-300 systems, during unprecedented strikes on the Islamic Republic in October and April 2024.

However, in April 2025, Iran displayed an S-300 at a military parade.

‘Netanyahu is plain scared of Trump’

Iran’s nuclear facilities are buried deep in fortified bunkers in the Natanz desert and inside a mountain called Fordow.

Defence analysts often say one reason Israel has refrained from bombing Iran’s sites alone is because they lack the B-2 stealth bombers the US has stationed at Diego Garcia military base and the 30,000lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs the warplanes could drop on those sites.