A new wave of harsh international sanctions is rattling Iranian politics and dragging down an already struggling economy as fears grow among U.S. Allies in the region that another round of Israeli airstrikes on the country could be imminent.
The Trump administration says the U.N. sanctions, which European countries agreed to impose as a longstanding deadline approached, are necessary to pressure Iran back into negotiations over its nuclear program. But U.S. allies are concerned that the approach is risky and it threatens to drag the region into a fresh cycle of conflict.
“This is a dangerous gambit,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of Middle East and international studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. The longer Iran and the United States go without restarting talks, the greater the likelihood of renewed conflict, he said. And now that so-called “snapback” sanctions have been reimposed, it could be months before the two sides are talking again.
“The bottom line is this, if the United States actually starts negotiating with Iran, it would be de facto cessation of hostilities between Israel and Iran,” Nasr said.
Reimposing sanctions was not the “preferred option” and attempts to avoid escalation are ongoing, a European official said, who like several others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy. “The diplomatic door is still open and we don’t believe in a military solution to the proliferation crisis,” the official said.
In the months since attacks on its nuclear facilities, Iran increased construction at a key underground site, suggesting Tehran may be cautiously rebuilding, according to a Washington Post review of satellite imagery. Iran also threatened to bar nuclear inspectors if sanctions are reimposed and in parliament, lawmakers are calling for the withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a step many believe would precede weaponization of Iran’s nuclear program.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said further military action against Iran has been on the table since the two sides agreed to a truce and this week Israeli officials told local media outlets that they are considering further strikes.
In a sign of heightened regional tensions, local Iranian media picked up open source reporting of U.S. fuel tankers deploying to the region, saying the news coincided with statements that the purpose of the additional sanctions was to “pave the way for military threats.”
Comments like those are particularly concerning to U.S. allies in the Middle East. “The region today cannot go through the same Iranian-Israeli war or the other wars of the last two years. The cost is too high,” said a senior Arab government official close to the Trump administration. He said he is advising his American counterparts that “de-escalation” is the only alternative.
But the Trump administration holds that now is the time to dial up pressure, and that snapback sanctions will “create the environment” for “a diplomatic solution,” according to a U.S. official briefed on the policy
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