How will the Iran-Israel conflict play out in Syria?

How will the Iran-Israel conflict play out in Syria?

Aljazeera-April 3rd 2023

By : Mazyar Motamedi

Tehran has promised to retaliate against Israel but is focused in the meantime on diplomatic wins in the region.

Tehran, Iran – Israel has ramped up its military strikes in Syria, but Iran may bide its time in responding and opt for a more calculated strategy that fits into its larger regional goals, analysts say.

Israel has increasingly targeted alleged military sites run by Iran and its proxies in Syria. It has carried out nine such attacks so far this year, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a United Kingdom-based war monitor.

The latest air attack was on Sunday in Homs province and it wounded at least five soldiers, according to the Syrian government.

A short time later, Israel said it shot down a drone that flew into the country from Syria.

Syria has denied that Tehran, which militarily backs President Bashar al-Assad, has an extensive military presence in the country.

Another attack on Friday killed two members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who were hailed by Iranian media and officials as “martyrs” who died fighting “terrorism”. Last month, the airport in Aleppo was knocked out of service in an Israeli strike.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Tehran reserves the right for a response at a time and place of its choosing while the government spokesman, Ali Bahadori Jahromi, tweeted that “terrorist actions will not go unanswered”.

At the same time, however, both Iran and Syria are taking steps to improve relations with their Arab neighbours, and because Iran has signalled it is still interested in talks with the West, its response to Israel might materialise over time, experts said.

Iran-Saudi Arabia normalisation

While the latest strikes are part of a pattern of escalation, an immediate and major escalation will be unlikely, according to Abdolrasool Divsallar, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank.

“I think Iran, knowing that it has hit a blow on the political side to the Israelis, will try to invest more on that side, which is basically Iran-Saudi Arabia normalisation,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to the diplomatic rapprochement between the two regional powers last month.