What was Iran thinking? Maybe not what you think.
Washington Post-April16th2024
Either way, what the drone and missile attacks should clarify is that Iran doesn’t have the means to mount a significant conventional response to Israeli might. And Tehran is painfully aware of this.
No one can deny that the image of hundreds of projectiles launched into the air was an impressive and terrifying sight. The fact that apparently not a single one hit a target of any strategic value, however, is telling. Despite its stated intention of destroying Israel, this was the first military offensive Tehran ever launched against the Jewish state, and it was thwarted with apparent ease. Many reports indicate a high level of information-sharing by Iran itself ahead of the attack, giving the United States, Israel and other allies ample opportunity to prepare for the onslaught. This would suggest that the Iranians did not want to maximize damage to Israeli assets and provoke a larger conflict.
The clear message seems to be that the regime, its bluster notwithstanding, is weak. Iran’s economy is in tatters, and the government has no credible remedies for people’s woes. Protests against the clerical system have grown in recent years.