What was Iran thinking? Maybe not what you think.

The Israeli military have put an intercepted Iranian missile on display which they retrieved from the Dead Sea.

What was Iran thinking? Maybe not what you think.

Washington Post-April16th2024

Global Opinion writer|

Deciphering what the Iranian regime’s dramatic weekend air assault on Israel means is not as difficult as most observers are making it. There are really only two possible scenarios: Either the Islamic republic’s aim was not to inflict major damage on Israeli targets, or its aim was but it was incapable of doing so

Either way, what the drone and missile attacks should clarify is that Iran doesn’t have the means to mount a significant conventional response to Israeli might. And Tehran is painfully aware of this.

No one can deny that the image of hundreds of projectiles launched into the air was an impressive and terrifying sight. The fact that apparently not a single one hit a target of any strategic value, however, is telling. Despite its stated intention of destroying Israel, this was the first military offensive Tehran ever launched against the Jewish state, and it was thwarted with apparent ease. Many reports indicate a high level of information-sharing by Iran itself ahead of the attack, giving the United States, Israel and other allies ample opportunity to prepare for the onslaught. This would suggest that the Iranians did not want to maximize damage to Israeli assets and provoke a larger conflict.

The clear message seems to be that the regime, its bluster notwithstanding, is weak. Iran’s economy is in tatters, and the government has no credible remedies for people’s woes. Protests against the clerical system have grown in recent years.

Less obvious is the regime’s fear of a conflict that bleeds into Iranian territory. A direct, protracted war with Israel is not something Iran is equipped to fight. For context, Iran, a country of nearly 90 million people, spent roughly $7 billion on its military in 2022. Israel, with a population of about 9 million, spent more than $23 billion. As Iran’s currency spirals downward in value (reaching an all-time low after the weekend attack), it’s difficult to envision how the country could ever catch up to Israel’s military capabilities.

Just as critical, though, is the fact that since its devastating eight-year war with Iraq ended in 1988, the Islamic republic has been able to keep the country mostly safe from external military strikes. It’s one of the few arguments the regime can make to the people about its success. Yet suddenly — and ironically, if it wanted to avoid provocation — that promise of continued internal security feels very flimsy.