‘You cannot separate’ the ‘unholy alliance’ that is Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, warns Congressman Michael McCaul

Atlantic Council -Nov21st2024

By Katherine Walla

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not heeded President-elect Donald Trump’s November 7 warning to not escalate the war in Ukraine, said US Congressman Michael McCaul (R-TX).

“He has not taken the president-elect’s advice,” McCaul said. “In fact, what we’re seeing is almost a counteroffensive now.”

McCaul, who is the outgoing chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, spoke at an Atlantic Council Front Page event on Thursday, hosted by the Council’s Eurasia Center. There, he talked about the threats Russian aggression in Ukraine pose for US interests—and how the United States should respond.

He said that the Biden administration’s recent decision to allow Ukraine to use longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets in Russia is “better late than never.” He pointed out that these systems will support the fight in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukrainian troops are facing both Russian and North Korean soldiers.

But the ATACMS will also serve another purpose, McCaul argued: They give Ukraine leverage in negotiations. “If and when the moment happens where a ceasefire is declared and a negotiation takes place,” he said, “Ukraine has to be in the strongest possible position with the most leverage to get the best negotiation at the table. Right now, they’re not there.”

Below are more highlights from the conversation—moderated by Atlantic Council Eurasia Center Senior Director John Herbst—in which the congressman also discussed how the United States will need to face up against a new “unholy alliance” emerging among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

Hard road ahead

With Trump soon to re-enter the White House, there is fresh attention on the president-elect’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, of which few details are known. McCaul said that because Putin “wants all of Ukraine,” any unfolding negotiation is “not going to be easy.”
If a negotiation leads to an agreement, McCaul argued, the deal will need an “enforcement mechanism” to make sure Russia does not continue its aggression.
McCaul criticized the Biden administration for “slow walking” promised defense aid for Ukraine. “If we’re only halfway in this thing, you get into a stalemate. And if you get into a stalemate, Russia wins,” he said.

A “moral obligation” for the United States

McCaul said that if Russia wins, the United States would look “weaker” on the world stage. That, he said, would “invite more aggression” from Putin, which would likely result in the swift fall of Moldova and Georgia and heightened threats against Eastern Europe—and would change Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s calculus on whether to invade Taiwan.
With Russia suspected of weighing options for escalating its sabotage campaign against NATO countries, McCaul warned that Russia is “getting dangerously close” to triggering NATO’s collective defense commitment as enshrined under Article 5.
When the US Congress passed the supplemental aid package for Ukraine in April, there were “a lot of courageous members that did the right thing,” McCaul said, but there were also members “who were afraid of their own shadows.” He added that upon returning to their districts, members didn’t receive the blowback that many were expecting for supporting the aid package—rather, they received praise for standing up to Putin.
Ukrainian troops are “fighting this conflict for us,” he said. “It’s our moral obligation and responsibility to stop aggression where it exists, to defend freedom and democracy.”