Iran is on the edge of revolution

The 🆕 NEW STATESMAN -Jan 8th2026

By Abbas Milani

The forces that created the Islamic Republic are fomenting its destruction

The Islamic Republic of Iran today is less a “revolutionary” state than a hollow shell. Despite the biggest protests since 2009, the regime projects defiance. Its government threatens regional retaliation against demonstrations and claims to be resilient against sanctions and isolation. Yet behind this theatre is a state enduring its gravest crisis since the 1979 Iranian Revolution – this crisis comes not from a single protest or foreign confrontation, but a convergence of domestic exhaustion, despotism, elite fragmentation and strategic failure. The ruling class remains entrenched but increasingly disconnected from society, and is uncertain of its own future. The question is no longer whether the system is under strain, but whether it retains the internal coherence necessary to survive.

History offers a sobering parallel. In the late 1970s, a disparate coalition of urban migrants, merchants of the Grand Bazaar in Tehran (where protesters are now clashing with police), intellectuals, leftists and religious conservatives converged against the Shah. Their victory was shaped not only by domestic discontent but by international miscalculation. Western governments, eager to avoid chaos and Soviet influence, regarded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as a stabilising alternative. The result was one of the great strategic errors of the Cold War.

Today, the logic of history has reversed. The very social groups that helped bring the clerical regime to power have become its most implacable opponents. The economic foundations of the Islamic Republic have eroded beyond repair. The regime and its apologists blame it all on sanctions. Yet, four decades of inflation, mismanagement, and international isolation have impoverished virtually every segment of society. Iran’s currency has collapsed; the middle class has been hollowed out; younger generations are bereft of hope and see no plausible path to advancement. Rural and small-town populations – once reliable supporters – now confront unemployment, environmental degradation and declining state capacity. Social media has put them in direct contact with the world.

Equally significant is the regime’s transformation of its own economic base. The traditional bazaar, once a pillar of clerical power, has been steadily marginalised by para-state conglomerates linked to the Revolutionary Guards and religious foundations. These entities dominate key sectors, distort markets, and extract rents, deepening public resentment and crowding out private initiative. They have also created a new nomenklatura who shamelessly display lavish wealth, underscoring disparities in society.

Yet economics alone does not explain the regime’s vulnerability and the current crisis. What distinguishes the current moment is a profound collapse of legitimacy and people’s increasing demand for regime change. Nowhere is this clearer than in the role of women. In 1979, many Iranian women – motivated by anti-imperialist sentiment and hopes for political reform – supported Ayatollah Khomeini. But once in power his regime swiftly institutionalized gender discrimination and sexual apartheid. Legal segregation, compulsory veiling, and the erosion of civil rights followed almost immediately.

Over time, however, women have become the regime’s most consistent and courageous critics. Through sustained acts of civil disobedience – from defying dress codes to reclaiming public space – they have transformed everyday resistance into a national political force. The Woman, Life, Freedom protests, which began in September 2022, were not an anomaly, but the culmination of decades of defiance.

Authoritarian systems rely not only on coercion, but on fear. In Iran, that fear has visibly weakened. Once citizens cease to believe in the regime’s omnipotence, repression becomes less effective – and far more costly. Acts of repression only beget more acts of resistance. Externally, Iran’s strategic position has also deteriorated. The so-called “axis of resistance”, Iran’s network of Middle Eastern proxies, has become a liability rather than an asset, draining resources and entangling Tehran in conflicts it struggles to control. Relationships with Russia and China provide diplomatic cover, but little economic relief. Even long-standing regional allies increasingly hedge their bets.

Read more on original:

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution