Biden scrambles to defuse the ticking Iran-Israel time bomb

Biden scrambles to defuse the ticking Iran-Israel time bomb

Washington Post-Aug7th2024

August 6, 2024 at 6:18 p.m. EDT

President Biden may be leaving the White House soon. But over the past week, he has conducted an intense round of diplomacy and military preparation to stave off a catastrophic war in the Middle East.

The White House effort has included back-channel talks with Iran to urge restraint, blunt warnings to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to obstruct a cease-fire in Gaza, and the dispatch of a U.S. naval and air armada to protect Israel and other U.S. allies if deterrence fails.

The risk of a devastating regional war remains uncomfortably high. But White House officials said Tuesday they believe Biden’s efforts may be paying off. Iran may be reconsidering a plan for major retaliation after last Wednesday’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, is still a wild card, officials said.

The Iranian response has been complicated by seeming confusion over the circumstances of Haniyeh’s death. Tehran at first claimed he was killed by an Israeli missile, requiring a similar Iranian response. But officials say that Tehran has concluded privately that he was instead eliminated by a concealed bomb, perhaps prompting a different response. The Iranian regime is said to have conducted similar targeted attacks in third countries.

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Tehran may also be dissuaded by the U.S. show of force this week, and secret White House communications passed via the Swiss embassy in Tehran and the Iranian mission at the United Nations. “Iran understands clearly that the United States is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people. We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle,” a senior administration official messaged me.

U.S. messages to Iran have also made clear that the risk of a major escalation is extremely high, with serious consequences for the stability of the new government of President Masoud Pezeshkian.