Deal with Trump hands Iran economic lifeline as leaders eye postwar gains

Washington Post-June27th2026

An influx of cash under Trump’s preliminary peace agreement could offer Iran’s leaders a chance to stabilize their economy and rebuild after months of war.

June 27, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. EDTToday at 5:00 a.m. EDT

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An Iranian woman prays during ceremony in Tehran on Thursday. (Vahid Salemi/AP)

By Susannah George

The preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran, a broad framework still taking shape in early rounds of talks, hands Iran’s leadership a major economic lifeline as Tehran looks to consolidate strategic gains after months of war with Israel and the United States.

Sanctions waivers that allow Iran to sell oil in U.S. dollars and commitments to unfreeze Iranian assets could grant Iran’s government access to billions of dollars in desperately needed hard currency. Having survived mostly intact despite devastating assassinations throughout its ranks, the Iranian system must now address widespread damage and destruction. Even before the war, the country’s spiraling economic crisis was the driving source of domestic discontent.

But critics of the deal argue the relief will ultimately allow Iran to rebuild its military and support allied armed groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Trump administration says it is requiring Iran spend some of its unfrozen assets buying food from U.S. farmers, but Tehran’s oil revenue are not similarly restricted.

In the wake of war with two of the most powerful militaries, the Iranian system entered peace talks with the United States emboldened and has used the negotiations to secure critical concessions from economic aid, formalization of Iran’s control over the crucial Strait of Hormuz and a say in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Trump administration officials say the deal is “performance based” and most of the economic incentives demand Iran comply with the terms of the initial agreement, including that it open the Strait of Hormuz and allow nuclear inspections.

“For Iran to benefit long-term, it has to achieve a final deal with the United States,” said a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House. “We can simply rescind waivers and restore pressure if Iran fails to implement its commitments. The waiver does not diminish our leverage, it strengthens it,” the official said.

Tehran has surged oil into international markets since the agreement came into force last week, exporting more than 40 million barrels, much of it the crude that had built up in storage during the U.S. blockade, according to Tankertrackers.com, a maritime tracking firm. Once Iranian exports recover and stabilize, Tehran is expected to export 1.6 to 1.7 million barrels per day in the coming weeks, according to Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy markets analyst for the Eurasia Group, a New York-based political risk consultancy. That export rate would mean some $8 or $9 billion in oil revenue over the next two months, Brew said.

A market street in Tehran on June 15. (Majid Asgaripour/Reuters)

Iran “will be earning quite a lot of hard currency from these sales and in practice this money is going to be fungible,” said Brew: In practice, Tehran would be able to spend it on whatever it wants, from its own military to proxy forces. But in the short term, Brew said he doesn’t believe the money would be a windfall for Iran’s security establishment. The country’s economic and reconstruction needs are so great, he said, Tehran will be forced to allocate cash to rebuilding.